2025 UFC betting trends: Distance is the top overall edge, going 255-262 for +28.63 units and +5.5% ROI across 517 fights, with sharp Q1/Q3 dog seasons and a brutal Q4 chalk swing.
⚡ 2025 UFC Betting Trends
517 fights tracked • 15 divisions • 13 bet types • Real money results
🚨 Key Finding: The Q4 Reversal
Underdogs accumulated 53 units in profit through October across 213 fights, demonstrating consistent profitability for nine months. Then November and December reversed the trend completely. In just 79 fights during the fourth quarter, underdogs lost 30.73 units with a negative 39% return on investment. This fourth quarter reversal erased nine months of gains, with underdogs finishing the year down 19.68 units overall.
📊 Overall 2025 Performance
| Bet Type | Record | Win % | Units | ROI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 352-162 | 68.5% | -3.38 | -0.7% | Break Even |
| Underdog | 162-352 | 31.5% | -19.68 | -3.8% | Negative |
| Over | 284-233 | 54.9% | -26.19 | -5.1% | Negative |
| Under | 233-284 | 45.1% | +6.04 | +1.2% | Profitable |
| Distance | 255-262 | 49.3% | +28.63 | +5.5% | Strong Profit |
| No Distance | 262-255 | 50.7% | -30.65 | -5.9% | Negative |
| Coin Flip Fav | 71-53 | 57.3% | +3.87 | +3.1% | Positive |
| Coin Flip Dog | 53-70 | 43.1% | -4.60 | -3.7% | Negative |
Favorites won 68.5% of fights in 2025 but finished essentially break-even at negative 0.7% return on investment with 3.38 units lost. Underdogs won 31.5% of fights and finished the year down 3.8% ROI, losing 19.68 units overall. Distance betting emerged as the strongest performing category, returning 28.63 units at 5.5% ROI despite winning less than half the time. Under bets showed modest profitability with 6.04 units gained. Over bets finished negative 26.19 units at negative 5.1% ROI, while betting on fights not to go the distance lost 30.65 units.
🏆 Top Performing Categories
Elite Underdog Divisions
Three divisions demonstrated exceptional underdog performance in 2025. Welterweight underdogs posted a remarkable 31.0% return on investment with a 24-33 record, banking 17.66 units in profit. Light heavyweight underdogs finished at 27.7% ROI with a 15-21 record and 9.97 units earned. Men’s bantamweight completed the top tier with 23.8% ROI, posting a 19-38 record while accumulating 13.57 units. Combined, these three divisions generated 41.20 units in profit across 58 wins and 92 losses, demonstrating how selective division focus can produce positive returns despite losing records.
Strong Prop Betting Results
Proposition betting showed varying performance across divisions. Women’s catchweight under bets produced a 49.0% return on investment from a limited sample size. Heavyweight distance bets delivered 47.8% ROI, reflecting the division’s tendency toward early finishes or full duration fights. Women’s featherweight distance bets posted 44.0% ROI. Across all divisions, distance betting accumulated 28.63 units in total profit, representing the most consistently profitable prop bet category of 2025.
📅 2025 Monthly Performance
| Month | Fights | Fav Performance | Dog Performance | Top Performer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 27 | 17-10 (-13.4%) | 10-17 (+38.9%) | Underdogs |
| February | 47 | 31-16 (-3.9%) | 15-32 (-9.1%) | Neither |
| March | 58 | 34-24 (-16.1%) | 24-34 (+19.6%) | Underdogs |
| April | 39 | 32-7 (+23.2%) | 7-32 (-54.7%) | Favorites |
| May | 44 | 31-13 (+4.3%) | 13-31 (-8.6%) | Neutral |
| June | 48 | 35-13 (+2.3%) | 13-35 (-13.9%) | Neutral |
| July | 38 | 21-17 (-23.6%) | 17-21 (+54.2%) | Underdogs |
| August | 48 | 35-13 (+2.0%) | 13-35 (-14.0%) | Neutral |
| September | 38 | 23-15 (-8.3%) | 15-23 (+6.8%) | Underdogs |
| October | 51 | 32-19 (-8.1%) | 19-32 (+17.2%) | Underdogs |
| November | 53 | 42-11 (+19.1%) | 11-42 (-42.7%) | Favorites |
| December | 26 | 19-7 (+17.5%) | 5-21 (-31.2%) | Favorites |
Monthly performance revealed distinct patterns throughout 2025. January opened with underdogs posting 38.9% ROI across 27 fights. March continued this trend with underdogs at 19.6% ROI over 58 fights. April represented a sharp reversal, with favorites delivering 23.2% ROI while underdogs finished at negative 54.7% ROI in the year’s most lopsided month. Summer months showed mixed results through May, June, and August. July emerged as the peak underdog month with 54.2% ROI. September and October maintained underdog profitability at 6.8% and 17.2% respectively, before the November-December reversal redefined the year’s outcome.
🔑 Seasonal Patterns Observed
First and Third Quarter Trends
Five months demonstrated strong underdog performance: January, March, July, September, and October. These months combined for 213 fights that generated 53.31 units in profit. January showed underdogs posting 38.9% ROI while favorites lost 13.4%. July represented peak underdog performance with 54.2% ROI for underdogs against negative 23.6% for favorites, creating a 77.8% performance spread. October completed the profitable stretch with 17.2% ROI for underdogs as favorites struggled to negative 8.1%. The data showed consistent underdog outperformance during these five months across the calendar year.
Fourth Quarter Reversal
November and December demonstrated a complete reversal in performance trends. Across 79 combined fights, favorites generated 14.67 units in profit while underdogs lost 30.73 units. November showed favorites posting 19.1% ROI with a 42-11 record, while underdogs collapsed to negative 42.7% ROI at 11-42. December continued this pattern with favorites at 17.5% ROI and underdogs at negative 31.2%. The fourth quarter data completely erased earlier underdog gains and established a clear seasonal trend shift.
April Anomaly
April stood out as a statistical outlier, showing the strongest favorite performance at positive 23.2% ROI and simultaneously the weakest underdog performance at negative 54.7% ROI. This 77.8% spread mirrored July’s magnitude but in the opposite direction. The 39 fights in April saw favorites dominate with a 32-7 record while underdogs managed just 7 wins against 32 losses. April’s extreme favorite bias appeared as an isolated anomaly within the broader seasonal patterns observed throughout the year.
💡 Performance Analysis by Category
Top Performers
Three divisions showed exceptional underdog performance: welterweight returned 31% on investment, light heavyweight delivered 27.7%, and men’s bantamweight produced 23.8%. These three divisions combined for over 41 units in profit despite posting losing records. For proposition betting, distance bets in heavyweight fights returned 47.8% ROI and in bantamweight hit 41.3%. Under totals showed profitability in men’s flyweight at 31.5% ROI and welterweight at 17.3%. The data revealed distinct seasonal patterns, with underdog profitability concentrated in first and third quarter months, while fourth quarter performance shifted heavily toward favorites. July specifically demonstrated the strongest underdog performance at 54.2% ROI.
Weakest Performers
Women’s flyweight underdogs posted the poorest performance in 2025 with negative 64.0% return on investment. Over bets finished negative across all divisions at negative 5.1% ROI, losing over 26 units throughout the year. Betting on fights not to go the distance showed negative 5.9% ROI with losses exceeding 30 units. Fourth quarter underdog performance proved particularly poor, with November and December combining for negative 40% ROI and losses of 30.73 units across just 79 fights.
📈 Year in Review
This analysis tracked 517 UFC fights from January 1st through December 13th, 2025, examining performance across 15 weight divisions and 13 different bet types. Welterweight underdogs demonstrated the strongest individual category performance, returning 31.0% ROI and generating 17.66 units in profit despite a 24-33 record. For proposition betting, heavyweight distance bets posted 47.8% ROI as the top performer.
The data revealed clear seasonal patterns dividing the calendar into distinct performance periods. First and third quarters heavily favored underdog performance, while the fourth quarter showed strong favorite dominance. Peak months demonstrated 77.8% performance spreads between favorites and underdogs, representing substantial divergence in outcomes.
The most significant finding emerged from fourth quarter performance. Underdogs accumulated 53 units in profit through October, only to lose 30.73 units in eight weeks during November and December. This reversal demonstrated how seasonal patterns can dramatically alter year-long performance trends, with the final two months essentially determining overall annual outcomes.
Analysis Period: January 1 – December 13, 2025
Data compiled from 517 UFC fights across 15 weight divisions and 13 bet types
All results calculated at standard -110 odds (risk $1.10 to win $1.00)
Methodology: Systematic tracking of all UFC main card and co-main event fights throughout 2025
Comabt Odds HQ 