UFC Betting Trends: Light Heavyweight Division

UFC Light Heavyweight 2025 betting: Underdogs (15-21) are the top edge, delivering +27.7% ROI and +9.97 units across 38 light heavyweight fights tracked this year.

📊 Moneyline Performance Analysis

Bet Type	Record	Win %	Units	ROI	Result
Favorites	21-15	58.3%	-6.84	-19.0%	Poor
Underdogs	15-21	41.7%	+9.97	+27.7%	Elite

Favorites in UFC Light Heavyweight won 58.3% of their fights in 2025, posting a 21-15 record across 38 total bouts. Despite this winning percentage, favorites finished with 6.84 units lost at -19.0% return on investment, categorized as poor performance. Underdogs won 41.7% of fights with a 15-21 record while generating 9.97 units in profit at +27.7% ROI, demonstrating elite performance from a profitability perspective.

🎲 Proposition Betting Analysis

Bet Type	Record	Win %	Units	ROI	Result
Over	19-19	50.0%	-0.18	-0.5%	Neutral
Under	19-19	50.0%	-1.37	-3.6%	Neutral
Goes Distance	14-24	36.8%	+9.14	+24.1%	Strong
No Distance	24-14	63.2%	-4.03	-10.6%	Negative

Proposition betting in Light Heavyweight demonstrated varying performance across different bet types. Over bets finished 19-19 with a win rate of 50.0%, producing 0.18 units in losses at -0.5% ROI (neutral performance). Under bets posted 19-19, winning 50.0% of the time while generating 1.37 units with -3.6% ROI (neutral performance). Distance betting went 14-24 for +24.1% ROI (strong performance), while no distance bets posted 24-14 with -10.6% returns (negative performance).

💡 Performance Summary

This analysis tracked all 38 UFC Light Heavyweight fights throughout 2025, examining every moneyline and major proposition bet outcome. Underdogs demonstrated the strongest performance, returning +27.7% on investment. Favorites won 58.3% of their fights with a 21-15 record while posting -19.0% ROI. Underdogs won 41.7% with a 15-21 record, generating +27.7% ROI. The data illustrates how win percentage and profitability can diverge significantly, with the higher-winning category not necessarily producing superior returns.