UFC Betting Trends: Lightweight Division

UFC Lightweight 2025 betting: Favorites (50-19) are the top trend, delivering +10.6% ROI and +7.31 units across 69 lightweight fights tracked this year.

📊 Moneyline Performance Analysis

Bet Type	Record	Win %	Units	ROI	Result
Favorites	50-19	72.5%	+7.31	+10.6%	Positive
Underdogs	19-50	27.5%	-6.35	-9.2%	Negative

Favorites in UFC Lightweight won 72.5% of their fights in 2025, posting a 50-19 record across 69 total bouts. Despite this winning percentage, favorites finished with 7.31 units profit at 10.6% return on investment, categorized as positive performance. Underdogs won 27.5% of fights with a 19-50 record while generating 6.35 units in losses at -9.2% ROI, demonstrating negative performance from a profitability perspective.

🎲 Proposition Betting Analysis

Bet Type	Record	Win %	Units	ROI	Result
Over	41-28	59.4%	+1.74	+2.5%	Neutral
Under	28-41	40.6%	-8.69	-12.6%	Negative
Goes Distance	36-33	52.2%	+2.11	+3.1%	Neutral
No Distance	33-36	47.8%	-13.38	-19.4%	Poor

Proposition betting in Lightweight demonstrated varying performance across different bet types. Over bets finished 41-28 with a win rate of 59.4%, producing 1.74 units in profit at +2.5% ROI (neutral performance). Under bets posted 28-41, winning 40.6% of the time while generating 8.69 units with -12.6% ROI (negative performance). Distance betting went 36-33 for +3.1% ROI (neutral performance), while no distance bets posted 33-36 with -19.4% returns (poor performance).

💡 Performance Summary

This analysis tracked all 69 UFC Lightweight fights throughout 2025, examining every moneyline and major proposition bet outcome. Favorites demonstrated the strongest performance, returning +10.6% on investment. Favorites won 72.5% of their fights with a 50-19 record while posting 10.6% ROI. Underdogs won 27.5% with a 19-50 record, generating -9.2% ROI. The data illustrates how win percentage and profitability can diverge significantly, with the higher-winning category not necessarily producing superior returns.