UFC Welterweight 2025 betting: Underdogs (24–33) were the top trend, delivering +31.0% ROI and +17.66 units across 57 welterweight fights.
Welterweight betting in 2025 punished “favorite safety.” Favorites won more often, but the payouts were typically small, while underdog wins landed at premium prices. That imbalance flipped the long-term math of the division.
Underdogs won 42.1% of the time, but the wins hit hard. Upsets like Daniel Rodriguez (+469) over Kevin Holland, Muslim Salikhov (+450) over Carlos Leal, and Jack Della Maddalena (+257) over Islam Makhachev show how frequently welterweight price expectations broke against reality.
⇢ 2025 UFC Betting Trends and Results
Core Signal
Favorites cashed frequently but cheaply. Underdog wins came in spikes. In 2025 welterweight, payout mattered more than win rate.
A division can be dog-profitable when favorite wins are small and the upset payouts are heavy.
UFC Betting Trends: Welterweight Division (2025)
| Bet Type | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy / Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdogs | 24–33 | 42.1% | +17.66u | +EV |
| Favorites | 33–24 | 57.9% | -9.42u | Fade |
| Under | 31–26 | 54.4% | +11.94u | +EV |
| Over | 26–31 | 45.6% | -7.73u | Fade |
How to Read This Trend
Favorites won more often, but many wins paid only +0.05u to +0.78u, making the “safe” side fragile against any upset. When dogs hit, the payouts were frequently +2.60u to +4.69u, which is why the underdog side produced the best long-term return in 2025 welterweight.
Totals leaned the same way. The Under outperformed because the market often priced welterweight as steady minutes, while enough fights broke earlier than expected to create value on the shorter outcome.
Betting Takeaway
In 2025, welterweight rewarded bettors who treated it as a parity division. Underdogs did not need to win most of the time. They only needed to hit often enough at the right prices, and they did.
The totals results supported the same mindset. Unders outperformed Overs because pricing leaned too confidently toward long fights, while the division produced enough early breaks to make the shorter outcome profitable.
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