UFC Women’s Flyweight 2025 betting: Favorites (20–3) were the top trend, cashing at an 86.96% rate for +4.88 units (+21.22% ROI) across 23 fights.
Women’s Flyweight played like a true chalk division in 2025. Favorites hit at an elite clip and still returned profit, which is exactly what bettors want when a division is legitimately tiered.
The underdog side was a long-term leak. Upsets were too rare to justify the prices, and the division punished anyone who tried to “shop for value” by default. If you were going to win in this weight class, it was by staying disciplined with the favorite side and avoiding hero-ball dogs.
⇢ 2025 UFC Betting Trends and Results
UFC Betting Trends: Women’s Flyweight (2025)
| Bet Type | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | ROI | Buy / Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20–3 | 86.96% | +4.88u | +21.22% | Buy |
| Distance | 15–8 | 65.22% | +0.23u | +1.00% | Tiny Edge |
| Over | 16–7 | 69.57% | -0.38u | -1.65% | Fade |
| Under | 7–16 | 30.43% | -0.68u | -2.96% | Fade |
| No Distance | 8–15 | 34.78% | -1.33u | -5.78% | Fade |
| Coin Flip Dog | 1–1 | 50.00% | +0.21u | +10.50% | Tiny Sample |
| Coin Flip Fav | 1–1 | 50.00% | -0.27u | -13.50% | Tiny Sample |
| Underdogs | 3–20 | 13.04% | -14.72u | -64.00% | Fade |
Core Signal
Women’s Flyweight in 2025 was about separation. Favorites kept winning, and the pricing still allowed a profit. Dogs needed multiple premium upsets, but the division barely gave any.
The season math is clean: the favorite side delivered repeatable returns, while the dog side never had enough upsets to recover the -1 losses.
How to Read This Trend
Women’s Flyweight is a reminder that win rate can be the edge when the weight class is tiered. Favorites did not just win, they won often enough to overcome the chalk pricing and still finish comfortably positive.
Totals were not a primary identity in this division. Distance barely stayed positive and Over came close but still finished negative. The clean approach is to treat totals as matchup-dependent, while treating favorites as the default baseline angle.
Value Favorite Wins: Why Chalk Worked
Women’s Flyweight favorites produced repeatable profit in 2025 because the chalk held at a high rate. This is not about chasing upset spikes. It is about cashing steady edges when the pricing was justified.
Betting Takeaway
Based on 2025 results, Women’s Flyweight was a division where paying for the favorite was justified. If you want a long-term baseline in this weight class, the data says start with favorites and be selective when the line looks inflated.
Totals were not a consistent edge. Distance was barely positive, while Over, Under, and No Distance finished negative. Treat totals as matchup-dependent, but treat the moneyline favorite as the structural trend.
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