UFC Men’s Flyweight 2025 betting: The strongest trends were the Under (19–16) for +11.01 units (+31.46% ROI) and No Distance (20–15) for +7.60 units (+21.71% ROI) across 35 fights.
Men’s Flyweight was not a “safe favorite” division in 2025. Favorites still won often (23–12, 65.71%), but the payouts were not strong enough to overcome the steady -1 losses. The money was in timing and finish equity, not in simply picking the better name.
The cleanest read from the results is that Flyweight produced a reliable finish lean. That is why Unders and No Distance carried the year, while Overs and Distance bled badly.
⇢ 2025 UFC Betting Trends and Results
UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Flyweight (2025)
| Bet Type | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | ROI | Buy / Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 19–16 | 54.29% | +11.01u | +31.46% | Buy |
| No Distance | 20–15 | 57.14% | +7.60u | +21.71% | Buy |
| Coin Flip Fav | 6–2 | 75.00% | +2.88u | +36.00% | Buy |
| Underdog | 12–23 | 34.29% | +2.07u | +5.91% | Small Edge |
| Favorite | 23–12 | 65.71% | -0.62u | -1.77% | Fade |
| Distance | 15–20 | 42.86% | -6.21u | -17.74% | Fade |
| Over | 16–19 | 45.71% | -8.30u | -23.71% | Fade |
Core Signal
Men’s Flyweight in 2025 rewarded finish and timing angles. Favorites won a lot, but the season profit came from Under and No Distance pricing, not from paying the chalk tax.
The trap: favorites hit at a strong rate, but the payouts did not scale with the risk, which is how a 65.71% win rate still finished negative.
How to Read This Trend
This division is a perfect example of why win rate is not automatically profit. Favorites won 65.71% of the time, but many of those wins paid small returns, and the losses hit for the full -1. Meanwhile, the timing angles delivered better pricing when the fights broke earlier than the market implied.
Finish Pricing Proof: Under and No Distance Spikes
These are the biggest Under and No Distance payouts from the Men’s Flyweight results. Big prices landed often enough to carry the year.
The Chalk Tax: Win Rate Without Profit
Men’s Flyweight favorites were not “bad picks.” They were just priced too tightly to be a profitable default.
Betting Takeaway
Based on 2025 results, Men’s Flyweight was best treated as a finish-forward division. The year rewarded bettors who leaned into Unders and No Distance rather than paying for “safe” moneyline outcomes.
Favorites were a high hit-rate side, but not a profitable default. If you want to play Flyweight long-term, the data says your edge comes from pricing the break, not from trusting the chalk.
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