Boxing Picks and Best Bets: The boxing betting world lights up on Saturday, August 14th, as three separate headline title fights across the continental United States occur all in one night.
The first of three is a WBO International Welterweight Title fight between the undefeated American Vergil Ortiz Jr, and the Lithuanian challenger Egidijus Kavaliauskas. The American Ortiz comes in as the heavy betting favorite over Kavaliauskas. The DAZN card from Frisco, Texas, kicks off at 8:00 PM ET.
The second of three title fights is an ESPN Top Rank trilogy about for the WBO International Super Lightweight Title. The saga between Joshua Franco and Andrew Moloney will finally be put to rest as the two fighters will be meeting for the third time to settle a long disputed competitive grudge between the two fighters.
Franco defeated Moloney in early 2020 to capture the Australian’s lightweight gold. However, the two met for a rematch just a few months later, but the second bout was marred with controversy, being stopped in the early rounds due to a ‘fantom’ accidental headbutt. Moloney comes in as the betting favorite as the challenger in the third fight between these two super lightweights. The main card from Tusla, Oklahoma, kicks off at 10:00 PM ET.
The premier fight of the night is a Showtime Boxing pay-per-view title bout between amateur boxing legend Guillermo Rigondeaux and the current WBO world bantamweight champion, John Riel Casimero.
Casimero comes in as the -200 betting favorite over the aging Cuban Rigondeaux, who has just one professional loss to his name in his career (against Vasyl Lomachenko).
The bout goes down from Carson, California, with the main card kicking off at 9:00 PM ET, with the main event is expected to be the final fight of the evening.
Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Egidijus Kavaliauskas Pick
Vergil Ortiz Jr is 17-0 and comes in against the 22-1-1 ‘Mean Machine Egidijus Kavaliauskas. As far as measurements go, these two fighters are almost equivalent, with Ortiz standing about an inch taller at 5’10, but gives up about an inch in reach.
Ortiz is the -1000 favorite, with the betting total lined at ‘7.5 Rounds.’ Since 2018, the ‘Under’ has gone 8-1 in Ortiz’s last nine pro fights, turning a profit of +5.41 units in that stretch.
As for Kavaliauskas, the ‘Under’ in his last nine fights has gone 7-2, turning a profit of +5.36 units dating back to 2017.
While Ortiz probably picks up the stoppage win in this one, the current price of -450 is not all that to be desired. Instead, you’re better off calling your shot and hoping for a violent first few rounds. Take the ‘Under,’ or the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’
Joshua Franco vs Andrew Moloney Pick
The 21-1 Andrew Moloney comes in as the -190 betting favorite as the challenger for his previously held WBA Super Flyweight championship against Joshua Franco.
Moloney is 21-1, with his only loss coming against Joshua Franco in a twelve-round classic early last year. Franco is 17-1-2 and comes in as the betting underdog after a controversial no-contest in their previous meeting saw him retain his title.
Franco is no stranger to cashing as an underdog, and even with a 4-1-2 (1 NC) record in his last eight fights, Franco has still managed to turn a profit of +3.17 units on the moneyline since 2018.
As for Maloney, the Aussie is 6-1 (1 NC) since 2018, with 4 of his last six wins coming by way of stoppage. The ‘Under’ has cashed in 3 of Maloney’s last eight pro-fights while turning a profit of +2.5 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop in that stretch.
If you’re backing Joshua Franco in this fight, you can’t go wrong on the current price of +210. Franco was out of sorts in his second meeting with Maloney last year and was saved by the controversial no-contest. However, before that, Franco put on a solid performance against Maloney in their first meeting and went 30 rounds against Oscar Negrete and went unbeaten with a 1-0-2 record in that stretch. At the current price of +210, you can’t deny that value on the champion in this spot.
If you’re backing Andrew Maloney in this fight, you have to think that the hard-hitting Kingscliff-native is going to go out looking to make short work of Joshua. If you’re backing the Aussie here, your best bet is to take the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +175.
Guillermo Rigondeaux vs. John Riel Casimero Pick
The 40-year-old Guillermo Rigondeaux is hailed as one of the greatest amateur boxers of the sport, having captured two Olympic gold medals in both the 2000 and 2004 games. The Cuban boxing legend looks to add to his legacy, as he comes in as the title challenger and +220 underdog against Phillipino boxing sensation John Riel Casimero.
Casimero is 32 years old but gives up an inch of higher and 4 inches of reach to the now 40-year-old ‘El Chacal’ Rigondeux.
Rigondeaux is 7-1 (1 NC) since 2014, with five wins by stoppage, two by decision, and one loss by retirement. The ‘Fight Goes Distance: No’ prop has gone 6-2-1 in Rigondeaux’s last nine fights, turning a profit of +1.18 units in that stretch.
Meanwhile, John Riel Casimero is 9-1 in his last ten fights dating back to 2016, with 8 of his previous nine wins coming by way of stoppage. Casimero has turned a massive profit of +15.7 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop since 2016, and +6.31 units on the moneyline in that stretch as well.
While it’s tough to bet against a boxing legend like Guillermo Rigondeux, there may be some value on the Phillipino Casimero here at the current price of -190. Apart from being an incredibly durable fighter, Casimero is a ring general and can frustrate Rigondeux to the point of no end in this match-up.
While it wouldn’t be surprising to see Casimero sit back and wait out the 40-year old Cuban, it seems more than likely that Casimero will use his volume and superior speed to get Rigondeux out of there early. If you’re backing Casimero in this spot, you can’t go wrong with the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at -105. However, the safer bet is probably the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop, currently lined at -145.
If you want to back Rigondeux in this match-up, your best bet is to take the +220 shot on the moneyline. While Rigondeux’s path to victory seems almost certainly to only come by way of stoppage, there should be no need to remind people that this is boxing, and things that make no sense happen in this sport all the time. With that in mind, steer clear of a stoppage prop on Rigondeux; if you fancy a wager on the Cuban, take the moneyline.
Boxing Picks – Saturday August 14th
|2% (0.8u)||Moloney/Franco (Under 10.5 Rounds)||+163||5Dimes|
|2% (0.8u)||Roger Gutierrez (to Win Fight)||+123||5Dimes|
|2% (0.8u)||Moloney/Greer (Over 8.5 Rounds), Arnold Barboza Jr. (Parlay)||-150||5Dimes|
|2% (0.8u)||Gary Russell, Warren/Vazquez (Over 8.5 Rounds) (Parlay)||-112||5Dimes|
|2% (0.8u)||John Casimero, Russell/Rodriguez (Fight Goes Distance) (Parlay)||-103||5Dimes|
|2% (0.8u)||Gutierrez/Alvarado (Fight Goes Distance), Barboza/Moran (Over 8.5) (Parlay)||-102||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Damien Vazquez (to Win Fight)||+600||5Dimes|
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