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Spark Sports 2020 MMA Betting Record:
226-162, +8.75u
(Verified via OddsPortal)
UFC on ESPN+ 30 comes from Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, this Saturday night on ESPN+.
The betting public, whether they are casual or every day types, are ready for more MMA action. There are a number of UFC division betting trends that should be considered before making your bets this weekend. Some divisions have more probable outcomes than others. Let’s take a look at each fight on the UFC card, and highlight each active division trend.
Let’s start with the ESPN+ preliminary card.
Preliminary Card (ESPN+)
UFC Men’s Heavyweight
Sergey Spivak (-140) vs Carlos Felipe (+135)
Total: 1.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Coin Flip Dogs: 14-7, +7.57u
Dogs: 25-35-2, +1.1u
Since 2020:
Over: 11-8, +2.07u
As we have chronicled over the last few months, the ‘coin flip’ underdog in the UFC Men’s Heavyweight division has been one of the most profitable trends to back since 2019. The ‘coin flip’ means any underdog that closes vs a favorite of -150 or better. Usually, with two upper-class UFC heavyweights, you will see a lot of fights sit at the -110/-110 range, so it is important to wait right until fight time to get in on the underdog side. As we have seen many times before, the underdog on Thursday does not always close as the underdog on Saturday night, so if you’re riding this trend, be sure to get your pick in late on this one. Spivak opened as a -120 favorite at most books and has since dropped to has high as -155, currently sitting just outside of that ‘coin flip’ range. Keep your eye where this line closes. Even if Spivak slips outside of the ‘coin flip range’ Carlos Felipe may still have value as a heavyweight underdog. Since the start of 2019, the dog in the UFC Men’s Heavyweight division has gone 25-35-2, for +1.1 units profit. If you were going to ride this trend, it would be suggested to wait until more money comes in on Spivak. Based on the 2019 underdog trend, implied probability has the value on the dog at +148 or better, while Carlos Felipe is currently sitting at +122. As far as the total goes, over the last seven months the ‘Over’ has been a profitable and probable trend to back in the heavyweight division. Hitting at a 58% rate, with a record of 11-8 for +2.07 units profit. Implied probability has the value on the ‘Over’ in this division at -137 or better, while the Over 1.5 rounds prop is currently sitting at -147 in this fight. This is another wager where you best see where the line goes before committing to betting anything serious, but the value should definitely end up being on the Over by post time.
UFC Men’s Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (-195) vs Davi Ramos (+186)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Favorites: 74-28, +6.58u
Over: 63-40, +1.46u
The favorite has been on a tear over the past year and a half in the UFC Men’s Lightweight division. The favorite has won at a 73% rate, going 74-28 for +6.58 units profit. 102 UFC fights, bettors who have backed in the chalk in every lightweight bout have profited +$6 per $100 bet, win or lose, since 2019. Arman Tsarukyan is currently sitting as a -213 favorite, with the ‘buy price’ on the favorite in Lightweight being at around -263 or better. If you’re riding the trends, a bet on Tsarukyan here would be the right play to make. As for the total, the Over has hit at a 61% rate since 2019, going 63-40 for +1.46 units. Implied probability has the ‘buy price’ on the Over in the UFC Men’s Lightweight division at -158 or better, while the Over 2.5 rounds prop in this fight is currently sitting at -250. While the trends point towards the Over being a probable outcome in this division, the value is definitely on the ‘Under 2.5’ at +192.
UFC Men’s Flyweight
Malcolm Gordon (+162) vs Amir Albazi (-161)
Total: (N/A)
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Under: 13-18, +2.89u
The Under has surprisingly been a profitable trend to back in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division over the year and a half, going 13-18 for +2.89 units, since the start of 2019. While probability is not exactly in your favor with a 42% win rating. You are still getting a decent chunk of value on the Under in this division at +138 or better, based on implied probability. The odds for the total rounds prop have not yet come out for this fight, but when they do, the Under is likely going to be the side with the most value. Meanwhile, the favorite has not been profitable with a 61% win rating. However, with a 19-11-1 record, there is value on the favorite in this division at -158 or better. Currently, Amir Albazi is sitting as a favorite. Slightly out of the value range.
UFC Men’s Bantamweight
Brett Johns (+175) vs Montel Jackson (-195)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2019:
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs: 13-12, +1.98u
Favorites: 57-29-2 (65%)
Over: 54-34 (61%)
While the favorite has not been profitable in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division, you are still getting a 64.7% win rate when backing the chalk at this weight class. Based on implied probability, the favorite at bantamweight has value at -184 or better. Montel Jackson is currently sitting as a -204 favorite, just outside of the value range. The Over has also been a probable outcome in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division, hitting at a 61% rating, going 54-34. Implied probability has value on the ‘Over’ at -160 or better, with the ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop in this fight currently sitting at -263, also outside of the trends’ value range. If you were going to bet this total, the value is undoubtedly going to be on the ‘Under 2.5’, which is currently sitting at +203.
Main card (ESPN+)
UFC Men’s Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (-190) vs Askar Askarov (+180)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Under: 13-18, +2.89u
As previously stated, the ‘Under’ prop in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division has been profitable over the last year and a half, hitting at a 42% rate for just under +3 units profit. Based on these trends, implied probability has the ‘buy price’ on the Under in this division at +138 or better, while the ‘Under 2.5’ rounds prop in this fight is currently sitting at +190. If you’re riding the trends, the value is definitely on the Under in this one.
Meanwhile, as mentioned, the favorite in flyweight has been a probable side to back since the beginning of 2019, hitting at a 61% rate. The ‘buy price’ for the flyweight chalk is at around -158 or better, while Alex Pantoja is currently sitting as a -200 favorite. On the flip side of this trend, the odds seem to be further apart in this bout than what the actual fight should indicate. The value may wind up being on the +170 underdog Askar Askarov come Saturday.
UFC Women’s Flyweight
Ariane Lipski (-120) vs Luana Carolina (+113)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2020:
Dogs: 9-8, +9.8u
Since 2019:
‘Coin Flip’ Favs: 9-5, +1.7u
Dogs: 21-33, +3.93u
Over: 38-16 (70%)
The Underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has been on a sensational run in 2020, going 9-8 for +9.8 units profit. At 52% since the start of this year, the buy price on the dog in this division is -112 or better. This trend of underdog domination in the women’s flyweight goes well beyond 2020. As the dog has gone 21-33 for +3.93 units profit over the last year and a half. Luana Carolina is currently listed as a +106 underdog the Ariane Lipski (-134). Without a doubt, based on the trends and implied probability, the value is absolutely on the dog in this one.
As for the total, the ‘Over’ has been a probable outcome going back to January of 2019. In the last year and a half, the ‘Over’ has hit at a 70% rate. Based on implied probability, the buy price on the ‘Over’ in this division is around -237, while the Lipski/Carolina ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is far out of that price range, currently listed at -357.
UFC Men’s Lightweight
Marc Diakiese (-152) vs Rafael Fiziev (+145)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Favorites: 74-28, +6.58u
Over: 63-40, +1.46u
If you’re following these trends, the buy price on the favorite in the UFC Men’s Lightweight division, based on implied probability, is at about -265. Meanwhile, Marc Diakiese is currently listed at -167. Although it’s a steep price, based on the trends and probability, there is a decent amount of value backing Diakiese and the chalk here. As for the total, the buy price on the ‘Over’ in this division is at -158, while the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently listed at -200. On the flip side of this trend, there will be some value on the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop if the line pops up above +160.
UFC Men’s Middleweight
Jack Hermansson (+100) vs Kelvin Gastelum (-105)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Over: 40-21, +4.31u
The ‘Over’ has hit at a 65% rate over the last year and a half in the UFC Men’s Middleweight division, going 40-21 for +4.31 units profit. Based on that trend and implied probability, the ‘buy price’ for the Over in this division is at about -190, while the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently listed at -175. While it is a steep price, the Over is definitely where the trends are pointing in this middleweight clash.
As for a winner, the last year and a half the favorite has won at a 60% rate, and the ‘coin flip’ favorite has won at a 52% rate. While it may be in your betting instincts to automatically take the side of the dog in this one, the trends indicate that the favorite winning is the more probable outcome than the dog. If you’re following the trends, it would be in your best interest to let the line sort itself out and get in on the market favorite at post-time.
UFC on ESPN+ 30 – Main Event
UFC Men’s Flyweight Championship
Deiveson Figueiredo (-200) vs Joseph Benavidez (+182)
Total: 2.5 Rounds
AlMac’s full fight breakdown at MMASucka.com
Division Trends – Since 2019:
Under: 13-18, +2.89u
As previously discussed, the Under has been a successful trend to ride in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division since 2019. At 13-18 for +2.89 units profit, the ‘Under’ is the value play to make in this fight, regardless of what ‘buy price’ the implied probability suggests. If you’re getting -120 on the ‘Under 3.5 Rounds’ prop, in this fight, you are getting value. Simple as that.
As far as a winner goes, the favorite has been the more probable outcome in this division, going 19-11-1 for a 61% win rating over the last year and a half. Based on implied probability, the favorite in this division has value at anything better than -158, while Figueiredo is currently listed at -200. The case to be made for the dog is that at 35%, implied probability suggests a ‘buy price’ of +182 or better. At this current moment, Joseph Benavidez is listed as a +170 underdog. If more money comes in on the dog, pushing it to the threshold of the buy price, take a shot at the dog. Otherwise, the trends and probability point towards the favorite in this one.
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