Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Prediction | UFC 262 Odds: Dating back to 2012, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler have a combined record to the ‘Under’ of 25-12 for +17.3 units profit. The two square off in the main event of UFC 262, with the vacant UFC Lightweight championship on the line.
Oliveira comes in as the -125 favorite, with Chandler on the other side at +120. Oliveira hasn’t lost a fight since 2017 and has put together an 8-0 record since then, including 7 wins by stoppage. As for Chandler, he’s 1-0 in the UFC, and is on a 4 fight winning streak, with his last loss coming to Patricio Pitbull back in 2019.
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Oliveira vs Chandler: UFC 262 Odds
|UFC 262||Charles Oliveira||Michael Chandler|
|to Win Outright||-137||+111|
|Inside the Distance||+100||+162|
|to Win by Decision||+800||+790|
|Total||Over 1.5 (-133)||Under 1.5 (+102)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (+274)||No (-476)|
|Where/When||Toyota Center | Houston, TX||Sat May 15th | 10:00 PM ET|
Charles Oliveira opened as the -178 favorite back in March, with Chandler as the +146 underdog. Since then, heavy money has come in on Chandler, seeing him move all the way to an average line of +111, with Oliveira now sitting at -135. This fight reached almost a pick’em price at some sportsbooks, with the average line at one point sitting at -125/+105.
Oliveira vs Chandler: Line Movement
Charles Oliveira holds a record of 30 wins and 8 losses in professional MMA, with a record of 18-8 (with 1 NC) in the UFC. Oliveira holds numerous UFC records, including most submissions at 14, and is tied for most finishes at 16. Oliveira has also secured 10 ‘Performance’ bonuses (a UFC record), 3 ‘Submission of the Night’ bonuses, and 3 ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses. With a total of 16 bonuses, Oliveira is among just a handful of fighters who have earned over $800,000 in UFC ‘end of night’ bonuses.
As for Michael Chandler, he is a former NCAA Division I All American wrestler out of the University of Missouri, as well as the former, three-time Bellator Lightweight Champion. He holds a 22-5 record in professional MMA, with 26 of his 27 professional fights coming between Strikeforce (2-0), Bellator (18-5), and the UFC (1-0).
Oliveira will hold a significant reach advantage over Michael Chandler, with ‘do Bronx’ coming in at 5’10, with a 74-inch reach, Chandler is 5’8, with a 69-inch reach. Oliveira should have no issues making the 155lbs weight limit, having fought for the majority of his career at featherweight. As for Chandler, the veteran has been known for being in peak shape for his fights and has never had any issues making 155lbs. Chandler is 35 years old and has been known to have to cut down from 180 to 185lbs in training camp, something that is far outside of reality for Charles Oliveira, who is a decent size for the lightweight division but is much leaner than the thicker Michael Chandler.
Tale of the Tape: Oliveira vs Chandler
|UFC Lightweight||Charles Oliveira||Michael Chandler|
|Record||30-8-0 (1 No Contest)||22-5|
|Finish Rate||90% (19 Wins by Submission)||52% (16 Wins by T/KO)|
Charles Oliveira has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 14 of his last 21 fights in the UFC, dating back to 2013. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Under’ in each of those 21 fights has turned a profit of +$967. Meanwhile, Oliveira has 13 finishes in that stretch, going 13-8 for +8.78 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop.
Since his UFC debut in 2010, Oliveira has a betting record of 19-8 on the moneyline, turning a profit of +6.35 units on the moneyline.
Charles Oliveira: Betting Trends
|Since 2012||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Inside the Distance||13-8||+8.78u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||18-3||+6.91u|
|to Win Fight (Since 2010 UFC Debut)||19-8||+6.35u|
The most profitable betting trend to back in Michael Chandler’s UFC career has been the ‘Under’ which has cashed in 11 of his last 16 fights, turning a profit of +7.61 units. Chandler is 11-5 since 2013, with 8 of his 11 wins coming by way of stoppage, turning a profit of +4.01 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. Chandler has been finished in 3 fights over the last eight years, with his opponent turning a profit of +5.3 units on the ‘Inside the DIstance’ prop, and with 2 losses by decision, Chandler’s opponents have turned a profit of +3.4 units on ‘to Win by Decision’
Michael Chandler: Betting Trends
|Since 2013||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Opponent Inside the Distance||3-13||+5.3u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||8-8||+4.01u|
|Opponent by Decision||2-14||+3.4u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||11-5||+2.9u|
|Opponent to Win Fight (Since 2011)||5-17||+3.86u|
|to Win Fight (Since 2011)||17-5||+3.49u|
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Predictions
Based on each fighter’s individual betting trends, it seems like a no-brainer to handicap this fight to end before reaching the judge’s scorecards. When you put a fighter with the most stoppage victories in the UFC in Oliveira, up against a perennial finisher in Michael Chandler, you should be more than willing to wager that this one go Under. The market agrees with the notion that this fight will not reach a decision, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop sitting at a steep -400 (via 5Dimes).
As far as the winner goes, it looks like Charles Oliveira has more value in this spot than Chandler, who is making just his second UFC appearance. Chandler comes into this fight with three straight wins by stoppage and is riding high in the public’s eye as a worthy contender for the UFC gold, after making short work of the Dan Hooker back at UFC 257.
Michael Chandler was closing in on becoming a chalk betting underdog at one point this week sniffing a pick’em line, and ill even say he has a chance of closing as the outright favorite. If that happens, you can not deny that the betting value will side unquestionably with Oliveira, who has one of the most deadly ground games in the UFC’s 155lbs division, something that Michael Chandler has rarely, if ever, had to deal with.
The main reason that Chandler was able to land such a devastating knockout punch to Dan Hooker, was because Hooker was constantly in the position to defend against the takedown, which left him leaving his hands down. In the case of Charles Oliveira, we are talking about a high-level jiu-jitsu player, who will, if anything, welcome the fight going to the ground.
When you consider how dangerous Oliveira is on the ground, it will be in Chandler’s best interest to keep this fight standing as long as he can, and look for that same, well-timed shot that he was able to land against Hooker, Henderson, and Outlaw. However, Oliveira has managed to improve his stand-up game significantly over the last few years and held his own against the likes of Kevin Lee, and Tony Ferguson. If Chandler isn’t able to find the button early in this fight, Oliveira’s output may begin to take over, which will lead to Chandler taking undisciplined shots and takedown attempts, which will leave him wide open to get his neck taken in some way shape or form.
Currently, the betting market has Oliveira as high as -125 (via SportsInteraction) to win this fight outright, and at +105 (via 5Dimes) to win ‘Inside the Distance’. While there isn’t a whole lot of value at +105 on the stoppage prop, you are likely to get a better number of the Oliveira moneyline as this bout reaches closer to fight night, as the betting public may continue to pour in on Michael Chandler.
If you are able to get ‘do Bronx’ at plus money at any point in the lead-up to this fight, it’s probably in your best interest to take it, regardless of how you think this fight plays out. While the stoppage victory seems like the most obvious path to victory for Oliveira, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him cruise to another blow out a victory on the scorecards, using his jiu-jitsu and ground game to secure an easy decision, similar to what he was able to do to Tony Ferguson. However, with this being a 5 round championship bout, you have to give the edge in the later rounds to the younger, and more agile Oliveira, especially against what could be a fatigued Chandler.
UFC 262 Picks: Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira have both been known to be finishers, and with the two going head to head here, you have to think this fight closes with some early fireworks. The ‘Under’ has cashed at a 67% rate between these two fighters over the last nine years of their careers. With CoolBet posting a juicy +125 on the ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop, you are surely getting value on what is already a priced out market. There is an opportunity to double down on whichever side you’re taking in this fight, as it’s highly doubtful that this one goes the full 25 minutes. If you’re backing either side, it would be wise to take a piece of the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, with Charles Oliveira lined at +115 (via CoolBet) to win by stoppage. In the case of Oliveira, with the ‘ITD’ prop, you’re turning a favorite into a plus-line by backing ‘DoBronx’ to get the finish. However, even at the affordable line of -125 (via SportsInteraction), there is still a ton of value on the Brazillian to win outright.
Lastly, if you want to build yourself a +EV parlay, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop at -400 is as close to the almighty ‘L-word’ as you can get. Oliveira has only gone the distance in 3 of his last 21 UFC fights, while Chandler has only gone the distance in 5 of his previous 16 pro-fights. With all the hype between these two fighters, it’s undoubtedly going to be a spirited and exhilarating affair. Don’t blink.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Oliveira/Chandler (Under 1.5 Rounds)||+125||CoolBet|
|2.5% (1u)||Charles Oliveira (Inside the Distance)||+115||CoolBet|
|1.5% (0.6u)||Charles Oliveira (to Win Outright)||-125||SportsInteraction|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 185-207, +13.25u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 669-587, +28.03u
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