Contender Series Week 4 Picks and Best Bets: The third week of the Contender Series kicks off on Tuesday, September 21st from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The event was to be headlined by a catchweight bout between the 6-0 Jordanian Hashem Arkhagha, and the 5-0 AJ Dobson.
The bout was initially set to be a middleweight match-up. However, Arkhagha missed weight by four pounds.
Arkhagha opened as the -160 betting favorite last week; however, since missing weight on Monday, Dobson has shifted from the +140 underdog to the -120 favorite.
⇢ Contender Series Week 4 Preview
Hashem Arkhagha vs. AJ Dobson: DWCS Week 4 Picks
Arkhagha’s most impressive win was his most recent one against Yuri Fraga at UAE Warriors 13. Meanwhile, most of Dobson’s experience has come on the lower level northeast regional scene and is not quite up to UFC level.
With that said, Arkhagha was absent from the sport of MMA from 2012 to 2019 and has not returned to his previous form since returning to the sport. With the recent revelation of him failing to make weight, you are better off backing the steam in this match-up, as Dobson is more than likely the right side.
Michael Morales vs. Nikolay Veretennikov: DWCS Week 4 Picks
Michael Morales is 11-0, with most of his competition coming against low-level talent on the Mexican and South American regional scene.
As for Nikolay Veretennikov, the Kazak/American transplant fighting out of Texas has fought most of his fighting career on the American pro-circuit. Morales is the sizable underdog in this match-up but has the hitter power to stop this fight if he should catch Veretennikov clean.
If Morales manages to survive the early onslaught from Veretennikov, his chances of winning the fight increase exponentially. The longer this one goes, the more it favors the underdog.
Steven Nguyen vs. Theo Rlayang: DWCS Week 4 Picks
Steven Nguyen makes his second Dana White’s Contender Series appearance on Tuesday night after being knocked out by Alon Cruz in Season 3 back in 2019. The loss is the only blemish on his professional record, and he comes into his bout with Theo Rlayang looking to redeem himself and earn a UFC contract.
Rlayang is 5-0, fighting out of the southeast US regional scene. He is giving up a significant size and reach advantage in this match-up, but his opponent has proven to be hittable and can be knocked out, as shown in his loss against Cruz.
This is another fight that likely swings towards the underdog with every passing minute, and if Nguyen isn’t able to put Rlayang away early, watch for this one to turn into a fire fest down the stretch. All in all, this fight is much closer than the odds indicate. Take a shot at the dog at +225.
Santo Curatolo vs. Kleydson Rodrigues: DWCS Week 4 Picks
Two 6-1 flyweights go head to head as Kleydson Rodrigues faces Santo Curatolo. Rodrigues has stoppage victories in six of his seven pro-fights, all of which have come on the Brazillian regional scene. Meanwhile, Curatolo is another fighter out of the northeast regionals in the United States. He is coming off of his most impressive win at CFFC 98 over Dilshod Zaripv back in July.
Rodrigues is the slight favorite in this match-up, but it may be the closest fight on the card. With that in mind, your best bet is to back the plus-money side in Curatolo and take a few shots on some props that see this fight going the full 15-minutes.
Jacob Rosales vs. Victor Martinez: DWCS Week 4 Picks
It’s a clash between two lightweight MMA veterans to kick off the card on Tuesday night. Jacob Rosales is 13-6, and at 26 years old, holds a ton of experience for his age. Rosales had a failed attempt at a UFC contract back in 2019, taking a TKO loss against Jonathan Pearce on Season 3 of the Contender Series back in 2019. Meanwhile, Victor Martinez is 30 years old; he holds a 12-4 record and is currently on a six-fight winning streak. While this fight was initially lined very close, steam has come in on the more well-rounded Rosales, who should manage to pick up the decision victory in this match-up.
Contender Series Week 4 Best Bets
Contender Series Week 4 Free Picks
|2% (0.8u)||AJ Dobson (to Win Fight)||-120||BetMGM|
|1.7% (0.68u)||Theo Rlayang (to Win Fight)||+225||5Dimes|
|1.4% (0.56u)||Morales vs Veretennikov (Over 1.5 Rounds)||-155||5Dimes|
|1.1% (0.44u)||Morales vs Veretennikov (Over 2.5 Rounds)||+115||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Michael Morales (to Win Fight)||+185||Bet365|
|1.1% (0.44u)||Rodrigues/Curatolo (Over 1.5 Rounds)||-135||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Rodrigues/Curatolo (Over 2.5 Rounds)||+145||5Dimes|
@AlMacOdds MMA Record Since 2020: 864-821, +15.45u Verified via BetMMA.tips
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