Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Prediction | UFC 263 Odds: Leon Edwards is 10-2 in the UFC and is riding an 8 fight winning streak into the highest-profile fight of his career at UFC 263, as he faces UFC legend Nate Diaz. Diaz is 15-10 in his UFC career but is 4-4 in his last 8 octagon appearances..
Edwards is a heavy favorite to defeat Diaz and is just one win away from his rightful and long-overdue shot at the UFC Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
⇢ More: UFC 263 Odds
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Odds
|UFC 263 Odds||Leon Edwards||Nate Diaz|
|to Win Outright||-560||+475|
|Inside the Distance||-110||+850|
|to Win by Decision||+165||+800|
|Total Rounds||Over 4.5 (+112)||Under 4.5 (-127)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (+115)||No (-145)|
|Where/When||Glendale, Arizona||Sat June 12th | 10:00 PM ET|
The current betting odds via 5Dimes Sportsbook sees Leon Edwards as a huge -560 favorite, while coming in at -110 to win ‘Inside the Distance’, and at +165 to win by decision. Nate Diaz is lined at the long shot odds of +475 to win outright, at +850 to win ‘Inside the Distance’ and at 8-1 odds to win by Decision. The betting market is expecting this fight not to go the distance, with the ‘Under 4.5 Rounds’ prop currently lined at -127.
Leon Edwards opened as a -275 favorite when the fight was announced back in March, but but has taken a ton of money and is currently sitting at an average line of -568. As for Diaz, he opened as a surprising price of +220, and has since swelled to the current price of +410.
Edwards vs Diaz: Line Movement
Leon Edwards is 29 years old and is 7 years younger than Nate Diaz, at 36. Diaz will hold a 2-inch reach advantage over Edwards, despite Edwards standing two inches taller. As far as fight experience goes, Diaz has the apparent edge in that category and has 14 wins by stoppage to his name, including 11 by submission. Meanwhile, Leon Edwards holds 9 wins by stoppage in his UFC career, with 6 by T/KO.
Tale of the Tape: Edwards vs Diaz
|UFC Welterweight||Leon Edwards||Nate Diaz|
|Finish Rate||50% (6 Wins by T/KO)||80% (11 Wins by Submission)|
UFC Betting Trends: Welterweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy/Fade|
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at a 65% rate since the start of last year, going 53-28 for +12.37 units profit. Based on the betting trend, any ‘Over’ prop in the 170lbs division at the price of -189 or better has been a +EV wager to make, since the start of January 2020. The favorite has also cashed at a 65% rate over the last 18 months, going 52-28-1, but has failed to turn a profit. Based on the betting trend, the ‘Underdog’ at welterweight has had value at the price of +186 or better.
Leon Edwards: Betting Trends
|Since 2014 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win by Decision||7-5-1||+10.1u|
|to Win Fight||10-2-1||+5.66u|
|Fight Goes Distance||9-3-1||+5.38u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||3-9-1||+0.52u|
Edwards has won 7 of his 13 UFC appearances by way of the judge’s scorecards, with the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop turning a profit of +10.1 units in his 7-year UFC career. Edwards has gone ‘Over’ the betting total in all but two of his fights, with one of them being a ‘no contest.’ A $100 bettor who backed the ‘Over’ in every one of Edwards’ UFC appearances has gone 11-1-1 for +$607 profit. As far as an outright winner, ‘Rocky’ Edwards is 10-2 in the UFC and has turned a profit of +5.66 units on the moneyline, dating back to his 2014 octagon debut.
Nate Diaz: Betting Trends
|Since 2013||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Opponent Inside the Distance||2-6||+7.05u|
|to Win by Decision||2-6||+5.4u|
|to Win Fight||4-4||+5.24u|
|Opponent by Decision||2-6||+2.92u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||2-6||+2.07u|
|Fight Goes Distance: Yes||4-4||+1.1u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||4-4||+0.93u|
The most profitable way to bet on a Nate Diaz fight over his last 8 appearances has been by betting on his opponent to win ‘Inside the Distance.’ Thanks to Josh Thompson and Jorge Masvidal, a $100 bettor who has backed every opponent of Nate Diaz to win ‘Inside the Distance,’ has gone 2-6 for +$705 profit. Apart from that, Diaz has 2 wins by decision in that stretch, going 2-6 for +5.4 units profit on ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. From his loss to Josh Thompson to his most recent loss to Jorge Masvidal, Diaz has gone 4-4 over the last 8 years, turning a profit of +5.24 units on the moneyline.
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Prediction
Before breaking down this fight, it’s important to mention that this will be the very fight 5-round non-title co-main event in UFC history. With that, you have to give a bit of an edge in the later rounds to Diaz. As he has been known to out-volume his opponents and turns the tide in the championship rounds of the handful of five-round fights he’s been in.
The consensus prediction here among ‘experts’ will likely be on Edwards to pick a 5-round decision victory, but when you look at the odds we currently have available, the real value looks to be on Edwards to win this fight ‘Inside the Distance’ at +120 (via Bet365)
Edwards has had a long stretch of inactivity but managed to get himself in the octagon in early 2021 against Belal Muhammed, albeit a fight that ended early due to an accidental eye poke. However, in that brief snapshot that we saw of Edwards, it was evident that he had improved in his striking. Edwards was already highly touted in the upper rankings of the welterweight division, but with the extended time off and the numerous training camps for fights that had fallen through, Edwards may have doubled down on his skill level and could be the next best challenger for Kamaru Usman and 170lbs gold.
As for Nate Diaz, we last saw him face a high-level striker in Jorge Masvidal back in November of 2019, in a heavily one-sided fight. In Nate’s defense, the fight was stopped prematurely due to a squeamish NYSAC doctor and probably would have went on if it took place in almost any other location. However, apart from Diaz having the long-shot chance of turning the tide in the later rounds, Jorge was having his way with Diaz, piecing him up in the stand-up, and dropping him numerous times.
MMA math does not work, and styles make fights and ultimately dictate the way we handicap them. However, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal do have similar weapons in their arsenal, and if Edwards can catch Diaz with one of those step-in elbows, you can be assured that he will be much more assertive against Diaz if he finds himself with a chance to finish the fight.
If the betting market expects this one to go the full 25-minutes, that expectation may be based more on perception rather than reality. Diaz is 36 years old and has been in more wars than most MMA fans can even remember. While we would all love to see an Edwards/Diaz 5-round battle for the ages, it seems that based on the current betting odds that the value will be on the fight not going the distance, and Edwards finding a path to put Diaz away.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Leon Edwards (Inside the Distance)||+120||Bet365|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 228-255, +13.78u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 712-635, +28.56u
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