PFL 7 Picks and Best Bets: PFL 7 goes down on Friday, August 13th from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The event is headlined by former Bellator welterweight champion Rory MacDonald, as he takes on the 2019 PFL welterweight champion Ray Cooper III in the PFL welterweight semi-finals.
MacDonald opened as the -210 betting favorite when this fight was announced back in July. However, money has since poured in on Ray Cooper III, making the line a virtual coin flip, with MacDonald now the -115 favorite and Cooper the +105 underdog.
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Rory MacDonald vs. Ray Cooper III: PFL 7 Picks
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Ray Cooper III is 9-2-1 since making his 2018 PFL debut, with 8 of his 9 wins coming by way of stoppage. A $100 bettor who has backed Cooper on the moneyline in his PFL career has turned a profit of +$1242 so far.
Meanwhile, Rory MacDonald is 4-3-1 since making his 2017 Bellator debut, with 2 of his last 3 losses coming by way of decision. A $100 bettor who has backed Rory MacDonald’s opponent on the decision prop since 2017 has turned a profit of +$560 in that stretch.
The best way to back Ray Cooper in this spot is on the straight-up moneyline. While Cooper has a very high finish rate, Rory MacDonald is a very durable fighter and could very easily take a 15-minute loss via beating.
If you’re backing MacDonald in this one, you’re better off taking the moneyline as well. MacDonald has gone the distance in 5 of his last 8 fights, but did have an impressive stoppage victory over Chris Millender in his PFL debut. Rather than taking a chance at picking the method of victory, the current price of -120 (via 5Dimes) on the moneyline is probably the best back for MacDonald backers.
Sadibou Sy vs. Magomed Magomedkerimov: PFL 7 Picks
Magomed Magomedkerimov is 9-0 in the PFL, with 5 of his 9 wins coming by way of stoppage. A $100 bettor who has backed Magomedkerimov on the moneyline since his 2018 PFL debut has turned a profit of +$487 so far.
Sadibou Sy is 3-3-3 since making his 2018 PFL debut, with 5 of his 9 fights going the distance. The ‘Over’ has gone 6-2-1 for +1.18 units profit in Sadibou Sy’s 7 PFL appearances.
The best way to back Magomedkerimov in this fight is on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at -155. Magomedkerimov has stoppage wins in 4 of his last 6 PFL fights, and when betting down a -650 favorite to -155, you’re always looking for stopping ability, which the Russian undoubtedly has.
If you’re backing Sy here, your best bet is to take him on the straight-up moneyline at +550 (via 5Dimes). Considering the betting total is reduced to just ‘1.5 Rounds’, if you’re backing the Swede, you may have a case for betting the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop at the current price of -120 (via BetOnline).
Clay Collard vs. Raush Manfio: PFL 7 Picks
Clay Collard is 2-0 in the PFL, with both of his wins coming by way of Decision; he has turned a profit of +12.5 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, having cashed at considerable odds to defeat former UFC lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis, by Decision in his PFL debut.
Raush Manfio is 2-0 in the PFL, with both of his PFL wins coming by way of Decision. Manfio has turned a profit of +6.3 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, with a shocking upset decision victory over Anthony Pettis of his own.
The best way to back Clay Collard in this position up until just a few hours ago was on the moneyline, which had him lined as a -155 favorite. However, money has come in on the cross-over boxing/MMA fighter, and he now sits in the range of -175. Considering both of Collard’s fights have gone the distance, even against the highest of level in competition like Anthony Pettis, you can probably bank on this one going the distance. Collard by Decision at +140 (via 5Dimes) is perhaps a decent wager; however, there is still a slight chance that Collard picks up the stoppage victory over Manfio.
If you’re backing Manfio, the best way to do so is probably on the straight-up moneyline. Manfio is currently lined at +155 (via 5Dimes) on the moneyline. While you’re getting as high as +250 on the Brazillian to win by Decision, you’re leaving yourself open to getting middled should Manfio managed to pull off the submission.
Loik Radzhabov vs. Alexander Martinez: PFL 7 Picks
Loik Radzhabov is 3-3-1 in the PFL, with 2 wins by decision and his most recent win by stoppage. Radzhabov’s 3 PFL losses have all come by way of decision, with all but one of his PFL appearances having gone the distance.
Alexander Martinez is 1-1 in the PFL, with his only win being a decision victory over Radzhabov in the opening match-ups of the 2021 PFL regular season.
The best way to back Radzhabov in this fight is probably on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at +135 (via 5Dimes). Radzhabov was a -145 favorite earlier this week, but has since moved to the -175 range. Radzhabov has just one stoppage win to his name in the PFL, while his opponent has never been stopped in his career.
If you’re backing Alexander Martinez in this match-up, you can’t go wrong at the current price of +155 (via 5Dimes) on the straight-up moneyline. Martinez has gone the distance in both of his PFL appearances, but all 6 of his wins outside of the PFL have come by way of stoppage. Instead of rolling the dice and picking the method of victory, you get peace of mind and money on the moneyline at decent plus-money.
PFL 7 Best Bets
PFL 7 Free Picks
|2% (0.8u)||MacDonald/Cooper (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+135||BetOnline|
|2% (0.8u)||Magomed Umalatov (Inside the Distance)||+165||DraftKings|
|1.3% (0.52u)||Magomed Magomedkerimov (Inside the Distance)||-155||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Tibau/Terrill (Fight Goes Distance: No)||+120||DraftKings|
|1% (0.4u)||Cooper/Hill (Under 2.5 Rounds)||-135||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Bowen/Lombardo (Under 2.5 Rounds)||-115||BetOnline|
@AlMacOdds MMA Record Since 2020: 778-740, +10.65u Verified via BetMMA.tips
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