PFL 8 Picks and Best Bets: PFL 8 goes down on Thursday, August 19th from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The event is headlined by the women’s lightweight playoff semi-finals, as two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison takes on City Kickboxing product Genah Fabian.
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Harrison opened as the -1600 betting favorite over Fabian and has not been lined at odds of -900 or less, since making her MMA debut back in 2018. The former judo world champion is poised to advance to the PFL finals, for a chance to pick up her second straight PFL title and capture the million-dollar prize.
⇢ PFL 8 Odds
Kayla Harrison vs. Genah Fabian: PFL 8 Picks
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Genah Fabian is 4-1 in her professional MMA career and holds a 3-1 record in the PFL, with 2 of her 3 wins coming by way of stoppage.
Kayla Harrison holds a 10-0 record, with 8 of her 10 wins coming by way of stoppage. Harrison has turned a profit of just +0.74 units on the moneyline with a 10-0 record, being lined as a massive favorite of an average of -1350 across her 10 professional bouts.
If you’re backing Kayla Harrison in this fight, there are very few affordable ways to do so. Harrison to win ‘Inside the Distance’ is lined at the steep price of -600, which could be used in a parlay, but the prop likely carries little to no value. Beyond that, you can pick your poison with an ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +100, or a ‘to Win by Submission’ prop at +100. Either way, the odds on Kayla Harrison have been priced out to almost every degree in this contest.
If you’re backing Genah Fabian here, your best bet is to keep it simple and take the juicy 18-1 odds (via BetOnline) on the moneyline. Fabian’s only realistic path to victory in this fight is to find a knockout over Harrison. The longer the fight goes, the more chance Harrison has of getting her hands on Fabian, getting her to the mat, and submitting her. If Fabian pulls off the upset, she probably gets it done early.
Fabian is lined at +1200 to win ‘Inside the Distance,’ a smaller payout than what you can find her at on the moneyline at some sportsbooks. With that in mind, if you’re backing the Kiwi in this spot, don’t be greedy and take the moneyline.
As for the betting total, the ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop is lined at -185, and is a decent parlay piece considering both fighters have gone ‘Under’ the betting total more times than not in their PFL careers.
Bruno Cappelozza vs. Jamelle Jones: PFL 8 Picks
Bruno Cappelozza is the -200 favorite over Jamelle Jones in the second PFL heavyweight semi-final of the night. Cappelozza is 12-5 at 32 years old. He holds a 2-0 record since coming into the PFL this season, with both wins coming by way of stoppage. Cappelozza’s last loss came in 2018 against current UFC light-heavyweight title contender Jiri Prochazka, as Prochazka knocked him out at RIZIN 11 in July 2018. Since then, Cappelozza was inactive up until his return to MMA in 2021, coming onto the scene with an impressive first-round knockout over Ante Delija, cashing as a +200 underdog.
As a professional, Jamelle Jones is 12-6 and is just 1-0 in the PFL since making his short-notice debut back in June. Jones pulled off the upset victory over Klidson Abreu, picking up the first-round stoppage win, cashing as a +175 underdog. With the win, Jones catapulted himself into the PFL heavyweight playoffs and now comes in as the almost 2-1 underdog once again.
If you’re backing Cappelozza in this fight, the best way to do so is likely on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at -150 (via BetOnline). In 17 professional fights, Cappelozza has never gone the distance.
As for Jamelle Jones, the best way to back him in this match-up is on the straight-up moneyline at +188 (via FanDuel). Jones has managed to reach the distance in 4 of his 18 professional fights, so the notion of Jones only winning this fight by stoppage is a risky one to back with money.
As for the betting total, if you’ve got Cappelozza to win this fight, you should probably also be backing the ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop at -155 (via BetOnline). Cappeloza has not reached the second round of a fight since 2016, and while Jones holds two decision wins to his name, you have to go five fights back in 2019 to find a fight where Jones has reached beyond the first round. With that in mind, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No,’ even at the steep price of -405 (via 5Dimes), is a solid parlay piece.
Mariana Morais vs. Taylor Guardado: PFL 8 Picks
Larissa Pacheco missed weight and is out of the PFL Playoffs. The No. 5 ranked Mariana Morais comes in as the short-notice replacement to take on Taylor Guardado for a shot at the PFL finals. The fight opened at about pick’em odds, with Morais sitting as a -110 underdog currently via 5Dimes.
Denis Goltsov vs. Ante Delija: PFL 8 Picks
Denis Goltsov comes in as the -230 betting favorite against Ante Delija. Goltsov 27-6 as a pro, having won 22 of his last 24 fights. He is 5-1 since making his PFL debut back in 2019, with 4 of his 5 wins coming by way of stoppage. The ‘Over’ has cashed in 4 of Goltsov’s 6 PFL appearances, turning a profit of +1.48 units in that stretch.
Meanwhile, Ante Delija is 18-4 as a professional, having won 3 of his last 4 fights between the PFL and KSW since 2019. Delija has two wins by stoppage and one by decision since then, with his most recent loss coming by way of knockout against current PFL #1 heavyweight seed, Bruno Cappelozza. The ‘Under’ has cashed in 3 of Delija’s last 4 fights, for an ROI of about 20% in that stretch.
If you’re backing Goltsov in this spot, your best bet is to steer clear of the method props and parlay up the Russian at the best odds you can find. While Goltsov has numerous stoppage victories to his name as of late, he has gone ‘Over’ the betting total in 4 of his last 6 fights, getting the wins second and third round. Apart from that, he also faces an incredibly durable opponent in Ante Delija, who has only been stopped by strike once in his last 14 fights.
If you’re backing the Croatian in this fight, your best bet is to jump on the moneyline at +245 (via 5Dimes).
As for the betting total, the ‘Over/Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop is a gamble either way, based on the current betting line. At -150 on the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop, you risk the chance of Goltsov putting Delija away early, similar to how Cappelozza did in their meeting. However, with the ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop, you risk this fight being similar to Goltsov vs. Brandon Sayles or Ali Isaev, which saw each fight ending in the third round. With that in mind, it’s probably best to steer clear of the betting total in this match-up and stick to the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ at the affordable price of -195 (via 5Dimes) as a decent parlay piece.
PFL 8 Best Bets
PFL 8 Free Picks
|2% (0.8u)||Kayla Harrison (Inside Distance), Delija/Golstov (Fight Goes Distance: No) (Parlay)||-142||BetOnline|
|1% (0.4u)||Ferreira/Austin (Under 1.5 Rounds)||-140||BetOnline|
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