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Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Prediction | UFC 262 Odds: Tony Ferguson’s back is against the wall at UFC 262 as he tries to avoid his third straight loss. El Cucuy takes on Beneil Dariush, who is on a six-fight win streak, dating back to November of 2018.
For the second straight fight, Ferguson finds himself as the betting underdog, with Beneil Dariush coming in as a -165 betting favorite against the fan-favorite Ferguson, who is lined as the +137 underdog.
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Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Odds
|UFC 262||Tony Ferguson||Beneil Dariush|
|to Win Outright||+137||-164|
|Inside the Distance||+330||+384|
|Total||Over 2.5 (-175)||Under 2.5 (+133)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes: -182||No: +129|
|Where/When||Toyota Center | Houston, TX||Sat May 15th | 10:00 PM ET|
Tony Ferguson opened as the -125 favorite when this fight was announced, with Dariush as a +105 dog. However, the market quickly came in and corrected, with Dariush quickly becoming a -167 favorite. Since then, there has been some buyback on Ferguson, pushing Dariush to as low as -130, but has since tanked back to the current range of -165.
Ferguson vs Dariush: Line Movement
Tony Ferguson is six years older than Beneil Dariush at 37 years of age to Dariush’s 31. Ferguson will hold a 4-inch reach advantage, as well as a 1-inch height advantage. If Tony has the right game plan, that can play a huge factor. However, we have recently seen Tony lose as a strong betting favorite against Justin Gaethje in a fight that saw Ferguson holding an even more significant, 6-inch reach advantage. While Dariush is not as heavy-handed as Justin Gathje, he is more than willing to stand and bang, in similar fashion.
Tale of the Tape: Ferguson vs Dariush
|UFC Lightweight||Tony Ferguson||Beneil Dariush|
|Finish Rate||80% (12 Wins by T/KO)||65% (8 Wins by Submission)|
Tony Ferguson is 8-2 in his last 10 fights dating back to 2015 and has turned a profit of +2.22 units on the moneyline in that stretch. In those 10 bouts, Ferguson has 2 wins by decision, and 6 by stoppage, turning a profit of +2.05 units on the ‘Decision’ prop and +1.97 units on ‘Inside the Distance.’
Tony Ferguson: Betting Trends
|Since 2015||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Fight||8-2||+2.22u|
|to Win by Decision||2-8||+2.05u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||6-4||+1.97u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||7-3||+1.15u|
Beneil Dariush is 11-3-1 in his last 15 fights, dating back to 2015, and turned a profit of +5.82 units on the moneyline in that stretch. He has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 9 of those 15 bouts, with the ‘Under’ prop profiting +5.3 units along the way. Dariush has 5 wins by decision, and 6 by stoppage in his last 15 octagon appearances, turning a profit of +4.15 units on the ‘Decision’ prop and +3.16 units ‘Inside the Distance.’
Beneil Dariush: Betting Trends
|Since 2015||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Fight||11-3-1||+5.82u|
|to Win by Decision||5-10||+4.15u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||9-6||+3.23u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||6-9||+3.16u|
|Opponent Inside the Distance||3-12||+2.44u|
Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Prediction
While this is a hard fight to break down, simply because it’s tough to count out Tony Ferguson in any fight he’s in. You have to acknowledge the betting value that we see on Beneil Dariush in this fight. Dariush currently sits as a -170 betting favorite, which is a relatively solid price considering Dariush has been lined as an average favorite of that price in his last 11 wins and is facing a potentially past his prime Tony Ferguson, who is on the wrong side of the 35 and has taken back to back demoralizing beatings.
To make matters worse for Tony Ferguson, Beneil Dariush is a very durable fighter that may force Tony to push the pace, which may turn this one into another all-out war.
With this in mind, you have to take a strong look at the ‘Under’ in this fight, which is currently lined at ‘2.5 Rounds’, with the Over at (-175), and the Under at (+133). Based on that line, the value sits with the ‘Under’ at plus-money as the market expects this one to go the distance.
Tony Ferguson has his back against the wall, and apart from flat out saying he could be facing the chopping block if he losses this fight; even if he keeps his job, his reign as a top 10 lightweight would surely be in jeopardy. Recently we’ve seen other fighters with their backs against the wall come out with guns blazing, hoping to either get a finish or put on a good show while doing so, which is precisely what Tony might do here, especially in front of a sold-out UFC crowd.
At the end of the day, with the way this line is moving, you’ll hopefully be able to get a reasonable price on Dariush to come fight night and an even better line on the ‘Under.’ While it’s never out of the realm of possibilities for Tony Ferguson to pull off something you are not expecting. It is tough to argue against the fact that Tony’s best days might be behind him. The fighter with more of themselves left to give might end up being the one to win this contest, and if that’s the case, then look for Dariush to get the victory.
UFC 262 Picks: Beneil Dariush has gone the distance in just 6 of his last 15 fights, while Tony Ferguson has only gone the distance in 3 of his previous 10. With that in mind, there seems to be substantial market value on the ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop at the current price of +158 (via 5Dimes). Meanwhile, the outright winner of this fight is a tough one to call, especially when considering the current odds. While most books seem to have this fight priced out at a -175/+155 range, there are still some books out there offering Beneil Dariush closer to -150. CoolBet is offering Dariush at -154, and with the uncertainty of where this line is going to go in the next 24hrs, it may be a good buy price to settle into.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Beneil Dariush (to Win FIght)||-154||CoolBet|
|2.2% (0.88u)||Dariush/Ferguson (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+158||5Dimes|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 185-207, +13.25u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 669-587, +28.03u
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