UFC 262 Betting Trends | UFC Picks: The hottest division betting trend coming into UFC 262 is the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division, which has cashed at a 72.7% rate since the start of 2020, going 56-21 for +19.67 units profit.
Meanwhile, the Underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division is also red hot, and with three women’s 125lbs bouts on this card, it may be worth paying attention to. The dog has cashed at a 38.6% rate over the last year and a half, going 17-27-1 for +9.07 units profit, since January of last year.
Let’s take a look at all of the active division betting trends for UFC 262
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 115-63-4 | 64.5% | -6.66u |
| Dogs | 115-63-4 | 35.4% | -10.43u |
| Over | 115-65-2 | 63.9% | +9.45u |
| Under | 65-115-2 | 36.1% | -37.47u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 99-81-2 | 55% | +16.8u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 81-99-2 | 45% | -26.18u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorite | 27-20-2 | 57.4% | -0.7u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 20-27-2 | 42.6% | -3.28u |
UFC Lightweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 8-6 | 57.1% | +2.02u | ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Dogs | 29-42 | 40.8% | +7.79u | +145 |
| Over | 39-32 | 54.9% | -5.7u | -122 |
The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has cashed at a 40.8% rate since the start of last year, going 29-42 for +7.79 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and implied probability, any underdog in the UFC 155lbs division at +145 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term. Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 54.9% rate in the last 17 months, going 39-32, but has failed to turn. Based on implied probability, fading this trend and backing the ‘Under’ at the price of +122 or better would be a profitable wager to make long term.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 17-27-1 | 38.6% | +9.07u | +159 |
| Under | 17-28 | 37.8% | +1.98 | +165 |
Coming into UFC 262, the betting underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has cashed at a 38.6% rate since the start of 2020, going 17-27-1 for +9.07 units profit. Based on implied probability, any underdog in the women’s 125lbs division at the price of +159 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has cashed at a 37.8% rate in that same stretch, going 17-28 for +1.98 units profit.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55-21 | 72.4% | +18.79u | -262 |
| Favorites | 48-27-1 | 64% | -4.88u | -178 |
Coming into Saturday, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division is one of the most profitable and probable betting trends in MMA betting. Over the last 17 months, the ‘Over’ at men’s 145lbs in the UFC has gone 55-21 for +18.79 units profit. A win percentage of 72.4%. Based on that betting trend, any ‘Over’ in Men’s Featherweight at the price of -262 or better has been a profitable bet to make long term. Meanwhile, the betting favorite has been a probable side to back, cashing at a 64% rate since the start of 2020, but the chalk side has failed to turn a profit on the moneyline.
UFC Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 34-34 | 50% | +0.91u | +100 |
| Favorites | 45-23 | 66.2% | -0.82u | -196 |
Headed into UFC Vegas 26, the ‘Under’ has cashed at a 50% rate in the UFC Middleweight division over the last 17 months, going 34-34 for +0.91 units profit. Meanwhile, the betting favorite has cashed at a 66% rate, going 45-23 for in that stretch. Based on the betting trends, the ‘Under’ in the 185lbs division has been a +EV wager to make at the price of eve money (+100) or better, while the middleweight favorite has been a fine investment at the buy price of at least -196.
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