UFC 262 Picks and Best Bets: UFC 262 takes place on Saturday, May 15th, from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The event is headlined by a vacant title bout for the UFC lightweight gold, as Charles ‘doBronx’ Oliveira, takes on ‘Iron’ Michael Chandler. Let’s take a look at the best bets on the board for UFC 262!
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Pick
⇢ Full Breakdown: Oliveira vs Chandler Prediction
Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira have both been known to be finishers, and with the two going head to head here, you have to think this fight closes with some early fireworks. The ‘Under’ has cashed at a 67% rate between these two fighters over the last nine years of their careers. With CoolBet posting a juicy +125 on the ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop, you are surely getting value on what is already a priced out market. There is an opportunity to double down on whichever side you’re taking in this fight, as it’s highly doubtful that this one goes the full 25 minutes. If you’re backing either side, it would be wise to take a piece of the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, with Charles Oliveira lined at +115 (via CoolBet) to win by stoppage. In the case of Oliveira, with the ‘ITD’ prop, you’re turning a favorite into a plus-line by backing ‘DoBronx’ to get the finish. However, even at the affordable line of -125 (via SportsInteraction), there is still a ton of value on the Brazillian to win outright.
Lastly, if you want to build yourself a +EV parlay, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop at -400 is as close to the almighty ‘L-word’ as you can get. Oliveira has only gone the distance in 3 of his last 21 UFC fights, while Chandler has only gone the distance in 5 of his previous 16 pro-fights. With all the hype between these two fighters, it’s undoubtedly going to be a spirited and exhilarating affair. Don’t blink.
Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Pick
⇢ Full Breakdown: Ferguson vs Dariush Prediction
Beneil Dariush has gone the distance in just 6 of his last 15 fights, while Tony Ferguson has only gone the distance in 3 of his previous 10. With that in mind, there seems to be substantial market value on the ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop at the current price of +158 (via 5Dimes). Meanwhile, the outright winner of this fight is a tough one to call, especially when considering the current odds. While most books seem to have this fight priced out at a -175/+155 range, there are still some books out there offering Beneil Dariush closer to -150. CoolBet is offering Dariush at -154, and with the uncertainty of where this line is going to go in the next 24hrs, it may be a good buy price to settle into.
Matt Schnell vs Rogerio Bontorin Pick
Matt Schnell and Rogerio Bontorin have a combined record to the ‘Under’ of 7-4 in their respective UFC careers. With the ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop lined at -103 (via Pinnacle), there is undoubtedly betting value on this one not seeing the later stages of the third round. Meanwhile, Schnell has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is facing an opponent in Bontorin who not only missed weight but struggled to cut down to the 137lbs he came in at. Bettors who haven’t gotten involved in this fight may have missed the boat on Schnell as a straight-up single bet. However, there is still room at -160 (via 5Dimes) for him to have some value on a +EV parlay.
Katlyn Chookagian vs Viviane Araujo Pick
Katlyn Chookagian has won 6 of her last 9 UFC fights, dating back to 2018, with all 6 of those wins coming by way of decision. At the current price of -133 (via Pinnacle), Chookagian has decent market value. Viviane Araujo is 4-1 in the UFC but hasn’t faced the same level of talent as Chookagian and should probably not be lined as just a ‘coin flip’ underdog to the veteran ‘Blonde Fighter’.
Shane Burgos vs Edson Barboza Pick
Shane Burgos is 6-2 since making his 2016 UFC debut, with 3 of those 6 wins coming by way of decision. A $100 bettor who has backed Burgos on the Decision prop over his entire octagon career has turned a profit of +$460, that’s +$58 per fight, win or lose. On the other side of the cage, Edson Barboza has just 3 wins in his last 8 fights, with 3 of his last 5 losses coming by way of decision. A typical handicap may bring you to back Burgos by Decision here, but there looks to be decent value on both Burgos on the moneyline at -152 (via 5Dimes), and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop at -155 (via BetCris).
Jacare Souza vs Andre Muniz Pick
Jacare Souza is on a three-fight losing streak and is coming off a devastating knockout loss to Kevin Holland and finds himself fighting on the prelims of a UFC pay-per-view for the first time in his career. He faces his countrymen Andre Muniz, who is riding a 4-0 win streak since making his octagon debut on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2018. Souza is a short ‘coin flip’ -125 (via CoolBet) favorite against Muniz, who is taking a big step down against the much less experienced Muniz. While Jacare’s best days are probably behind him, it seems a little bit premature to be matching him up with up-and-comers in the middleweight division. It’s not exactly the prettiest bet on this card, but Jacare definitely has value as the favorite in this spot. As for the betting total, if Jacare is to win this fight, he has to nullify the offense of Muniz, which is why this might turn into a grapple fest. With the ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop lined at -108 (via Pinnacle), there is some decent market value on this fight going over 12.5 minutes.
Lando Vannata vs Mike Grundy Pick
Mike Grundy makes his first UFC appearance of 2021 and comes into this bout with a 1-1 record in the UFC and 12-2 as a pro. He takes on UFC veteran Lando Vannata, who is 3-5-2 in the UFC, with two of those five losses coming by way of questionable decisions. Vannata is a lot better than his record looks, and this fight is about as close as the odds have it lined. The ‘coin flip’ underdog has won 54% of the last 46 fights in the men’s featherweight division, going 25-21 for +5.84 units, dating back to January of 2019. While Grundy might be the better fighter, he is stepping in the octagon against a savvy veteran who has far more experience than he does in this setting. Take Vannata at -104 (via CoolBet)
Jordan Wright vs Jamie Pickett Pick
The ‘Beverly Hills Ninja’ Jordan Wright makes his return to the octagon after getting flatlined in his last UFC appearance by Jaoquin Buckley. Wright will take on Jamie Pickett, who is 2-2 since making his octagon debut in Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2018. This handicap is simple. Jordan Wright should not be in the UFC. Plain and simple. Pickett wins this one by stoppage, and it’s worth taking a full unit shot at the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop at -150 (via 5Dimes), just incase Wright is able to pull off the miracle.
Andrea Lee vs Antonina Shevchenko Pick
It’s an interesting match-up between two fighters in different spectrums of perception. Andrea is 3-3 in the UFC, but is riding a three fight losing streak, and could be on the verge of being cut from the promotion. Meanwhile, Antonina Shevchenko is 3-2 in the UFC, with both of her losses being the only ones of her career. At 8-2, Shevchenko is still slightly unproven, and is going up against an opponent in Andrea Lee who has gone the distance with some of the top Flyweights in the UFC (Calderwood, Murphy). The wrong fighter might be favored here, and perception is not reality. Andrea Lee at +109 (via 1XBet) is the best bet on the board in this fight.
Gina Mazany vs Priscila Cachoeira Pick
Gina Mazany is 2-4 in the UFC, with both of her last two losses coming by way of stoppage. She is taking on Priscilia Cachoeira, who is 1-3 in the UFC, but entered the promotion with a 9-0 record, and the UFC felt that she was so highly touted that she could make her UFC debut against the current UFC Women’s Flyweight champion, Valentina Shevchenko. At the end of the day, this is a close bout between two UFC fighters with more losses than wins. Based on the current odds, the market value in this fight is on Cachoeira at +190 (via Pinnacle). Meanwhile, Gina Mazany’s fights have ended inside the distance in each of her last 4 appearances; at the current line of +170 on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop, you are definitely getting good value.
Kevin Aguilar vs Tucker Lutz Pick
Tucker Lutz will make his UFC debut on Saturday night, as he takes on ‘the Angel of Death,’ Kevin Aguilar. Aguilar is 3-3 since making his octagon debut back in 2018 but is riding a three-fight losing streak into tonight’s bout. Lutz will make his first official UFC appearance but is coming off back-to-back wins on Dana White’s Contender Series. Before that, Tucker Lutz put together an 8-1 run under the LFA/Legacy banner. However, Lutz is yet to perform under the big lights, with this being his first taste of a UFC event with a crowd. If we’re betting into the unknown here, the value is on the Aguilar, who has been here before and knows what it takes to win. While Tucker Lutz may be the better fighter, he could be dealing with octagon jitters on the big stage. Take Kevin Aguilar at +110 (via 5Dimes).
Sean Soriano vs Christos Giagos Pick
Sean Soriano is making his UFC return on Saturday night as he faces Christos Giagos to kick off the UFC 262 early prelims. Soriano is riding a 3 fight winning streak between three different promotions and has climbed his way into the UFC after an impressive 1st round KO in March of this year at UAE Warriors 18. His opponent Christos Giagos is 4-4 in the UFC and may be slightly overpriced in this match-up. Even if Soriano had only a 40% chance of winning this fight, he should be lined at +150. At the current betting line of +170 (via 5Dimes), the market value is on Soriano here. Kicking off the night with a strong underdog.
AlMac’s Best Bets
| Stake | Wager | Odds | Sportsbook |
| 2.5% (1u) | Oliveira/Chandler (Under 1.5 Rounds) | +125 | CoolBet |
| 2.5% (1u) | Charles Oliveira (Inside the Distance) | +115 | CoolBet |
| 1.5% (0.6u) | Charles Oliveira (to Win Fight) | -125 | SportsInteraction |
| 2.5% (1u) | Beneil Dariush (to Win Fight) | -154 | CoolBet |
| 2.2% (0.88u) | Dariush/Ferguson (Under 2.5 Rounds) | +158 | 5Dimes |
| 2.5% (1u) | Schnell/Bontorin (Under 2.5 Rounds) | -103 | Pinnacle |
| 2.5% (1u) | Katlyn Chookagian (to Win Fight) | -133 | Pinnacle |
| 2.2% (0.88u) | Shane Burgos (to Win Fight) | -152 | 5Dimes |
| 1.9% (0.76u) | Burgos/Barboza (Fight Goes Distance) | -155 | BetCris |
| 1% (0.4u) | Jacare Souza (to Win Fight) | -125 | CoolBet |
| 1% (0.4u) | Souza/Minuz (Over 2.5 Rounds) | -108 | Pinnacle |
| 1% (0.4) | Lando Vannata (to Win Fight) | -104 | CoolBet |
| 2.5% (1u) | Wright/Pickett (Under 2.5 Rounds) | -150 | 5Dimes |
| 1% (0.4u) | Jamie Pickett (to Win Fight) | -104 | CoolBet |
| 1.3% (0.52u) | Andrea Lee (to Win Fight) | +109 | 1XBet |
| 1% (0.4u) | Lee/Shevchenko (Fight Goes Distance: No) | +280 | 5Dimes |
| 1.3% (0.52u) | Priscila Cachoeira (to Win Fight) | +190 | Pinnacle |
| 1% (0.4u) | Mazany/Cachoeira (Fight Goes Distance: No) | +170 | Pinnacle |
| 1% (0.4u) | Kevin Aguilar (to Win Fight) | +110 | 5Dimes |
| 1% (0.4) | Sean Soriano (to Win Fight) | +170 | 5Dimes |
| 2.5% (1u) | Matt Schnell, Oliveira/Chandler u4.5 (Parlay) | +101 | CoolBet |
| 2.5% (1u) | Oliveira/Chandler (Won’t Go Distance), Aguilar/Lutz o2.5 | -121 | 5Dimes |
| 2.5% (1u) | Chookagian/Araujo (Will Go Distance), Vannata/Grundy o2.5 | -108 | 5Dimes |
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 185-207, +13.25u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 669-587, +28.03u
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