UFC 263 Picks and Best Bets: UFC 263 takes place on Saturday, June 12th, from the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The event is headlined by Israel Adesanya defending his UFC Middleweight gold against Marvin Vettori in a rematch from a 2018 bout that took place in Glendale. The co-main event sees Leon Edwards take on the UFC legend Nate Diaz in the first ever five round, non-title fight, co-main event. The feature bout is a Men’s Flyweight championship rematch between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno. The two fought to a draw in December of last year, in a fight that was hailed as ‘one of the greatest flyweight bouts of all time.’
Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Pick
⇢ Full Breakdown: Adesanya vs Vettori 2 Prediction
Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori have combined for 10 decision wins in their respective UFC careers, profiting for a total of 15.26 units between the two of them on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. In their combined 19 UFC appearances, only 6 fights have failed to go the distance. At the current price of -125 (via WilliamHill) on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, you’re getting a reasonable price for a fight that may be slow-paced and uneventful for the opening rounds, which has been the case for many of Adesanya’s title fights.
Beyond that, there is little to no value in betting Israel Adesanya in this match-up. When the market opened at the moneyline price of -235, you could have made a case for the kiwi to retain the title, even at a 70% implied probability. However, anything beyond that price, you have to go the other way. We’ve already seen Marvin Vettori go 15 minutes against Adesanya and managed a split decision winning two rounds on one judge’s scorecards. Vettori has improved drastically since that 2018 meeting, and if he implements an intelligent game plan and leaves his emotions out of the fight, he has a much better chance than the current odds indicate. Take a small shot on Marvin Vettori at +226 (via SportBet).
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Pick
⇢ Full Breakdown: Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 Prediction
If you’re backing Brandon Moreno, there’s probably a case to be made for betting the ‘Assassin Baby’ to pull off the stoppage at the price of +550. However, considering that Figueiredo himself has never been finished, you’re much better off taking the big plus moneyline rather than setting yourself up to be middled by a five-round decision. From the time this fight was announced until just a few days ago, this fight was lined unreasonably. Brandon Moreno realistically has about a 35% chance of winning this fight, which saw value on him at the price of +185 or better. Now with the most recent developments concerning Figueiredo’s condition, you might be able to make a case for betting Moreno even at the current price of +177 (via 5Dimes).
As for the betting total, while the numbers don’t necessarily agree with the market movement, it seems like a general consensus among bettors that this fight will not go the distance. When factoring in all the tangibles concerning weight-cuts, as well as fans being in attendance, you begin to understand why the oddsmakers might have had this one wrong when they put a plus sign beside the “No” on this ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, which is why the market has come in and corrected that mistake. At the current price of -125 (via WilliamHill) for this one to go ‘Under 4.5 Rounds’, you’re still managing to squeak out a bit of value on a prop that should probably be closer to -150.
Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Pick
⇢ Full Breakdown: Edwards vs Diaz Prediction
Before breaking down this fight, it’s important to mention that this will be the very fight 5-round non-title co-main event in UFC history. With that, you have to give a bit of an edge in the later rounds to Diaz. As he has been known to out-volume his opponents and turns the tide in the championship rounds of the handful of five-round fights he’s been in.
The consensus prediction here among ‘experts’ will likely be on Edwards to pick a 5-round decision victory, but when you look at the odds we currently have available, the real value looks to be on Edwards to win this fight ‘Inside the Distance’ at +120 (via Bet365)
Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad Pick
Damian Maia comes into this fight having gone the distance in 5 of his last 8 UFC appearances, losing 3 of those 5 fights by decision. He comes in tonight facing the much younger Belal Muhammad, who has 7 decision wins to his name in a 13 fight UFC career. At the current price of -149 (via WilliamHill) you’re getting decent value for this fight to go the distance. As far as a side goes, Belal Muhammad likely wins this fight, but at the price of +110 (via 5Dimes) to win by Decision, you’re getting a ton of value on a fight that has gone the distance in 9 of his 13 fights, dating back to his 2016 UFC debut. Take ‘Fight Goes the Distance’, and double down on Muhammad by decision.
Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill Pick
Paul Craig has won 6 of his 11 UFC appearances by way of stoppage, and comes in as a +225 underdog to Jamahal Hill, who is 8-0 professionally, and 4-0 in the UFC. Hill has 3 stoppage victories himself, and if you’re backing Hill here your best bet is to take the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at -125. However, if Hill is going to win this fight by stoppage, he’s going to have to put himself in the danger zone and if his conditioning starts to waiver, Paul Craig has the ability to finish the fight in a heartbeat if it hits the ground. While Jamahal Hill probably wins this fight, the value is on Paul Craig at the current moneyline price.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Adesanya/Vettori (Fight Goes Distance)||-125||WilliamHill|
|1% (0.4u)||Marvin Vettori (to Win Fight)||+226||SportBet|
|2.5% (1u)||Brandon Moreno (to Win Fight)||+190||BetOnline|
|2.5% (1u)||Figueiredo/Moreno (Under 4.5 Rounds)||-125||WilliamHill|
|2.5% (1u)||Leon Edwards (Inside the Distance)||+120||Bet365|
|2.5% (1u)||Muhammad/Maia (Fight Goes Distance)||-149||WilliamHill|
|2.5% (1u)||Belal Muhammad (by Decision)||+110||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Paul Craig (to Win Fight)||+225||Bet365|
|1.2% (0.48u)||Craig/Hill (Under 1.5 Rounds)||-103||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Eryk Anders (to Win Fight)||-140||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Anders/Stewart (Fight Goes Distance)||-125||Betway|
|1% (0.4u)||Brad Riddell (to Win Fight)||+135||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Terrance McKinney (to Win Fight)||+185||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Frevola/McKinney (Over 1.5 Rounds)||-125||BetOnline|
|1% (0.4u)||Ziam/Vendramini (Over 2.5 Rounds)||+100||Pinnacle|
|1.1% (0.48u)||Lauren Murphy (to Win FIght)||+117||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Murphy/Calderwood (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+310||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Pannie Kianzad (to Win by Decision)||-135||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Hakeem Dawodu (to Win Fight)||+204||BetCris|
|1% (0.4u)||Felipe/Collier (Fight Goes Distance)||-150||Betway|
|1% (0.4u)||Jake Collier (to Win Fight)||+150||Bet365|
|2.4% (0.96u)||Craig/Hill (Fight Goes Distance: No), Dober/Riddell (Over 2.5 Rounds) (Parlay)||+119||5Dimes|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 228-255, +13.78u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 712-635, +28.56u
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