UFC 264 Picks and Best Bets: UFC 264 goes down on Saturday, July 10th from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The main event features the triology bout between for UFC featherweight and lightweight champion ‘the Notorious’ Conor McGregor, as he took on the former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin ‘the Diamond’ Poirier.
Coming into the event, McGregor has lost three of his last seven professional fights, including a pro-boxing match against Floyd Mayweather back in 2017. The Irishman looked to avoid his first losing streak in his MMA career and catapulted himself into the very top of the lightweight division with the win over his No. 1 ranked opponent.
As for Dustin Poirier, ‘the Diamond’ comes into the rubber match against McGregor, having won six of his last seven octagon appearances, including a massive upset win over McGregor at UFC 257 back in January of this year.
Poirier has promised another finish of McGregor on Saturday night and has made good on his promises throughout his entire UFC career. Poirier has stoppage wins in 10 of his last 21 octagon appearances, turning a profit of +9.29 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop since 2012.
UFC 264: 3 undercard fights you don’t want to miss
Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho
The biggest favorite on the UFC 264 card is Sean O’Malley, coming in as the -800 favorite to the short notice UFC newcomer Kris Moutinho. O’Malley is 6-1 since making his octagon debut back at Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017. Since then, 4 of O’Malley’s last 6 wins have come by way of stoppage.
O’Malley likely wins this fight against the rookie Moutinho, but the 28-year-old out of Milford, Massachusetts, is not exactly going lay down for O’Malley. There is a decent amount of value on the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop at +165 (via 5Dimes), but it’s a tough one to back, as this one most likely does not go the distance.
In the end, O’Malley probably picks another stoppage victory, but this fight is priced out from top to bottom. If anything, the ‘Fight Goes Distance: No’ prop is worth using as a parlay anchor but beyond that. This curtain jerker fight is ultimately a pass.
Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Yana Kunitskaya opened as a +130 underdog when her fight with Irene Aldana was announced in the spring of 2021. Since then, Kunitskaya has been one of the most popular plays on this UFC 264 card. Kunitskaya has been bet up to the current price of -105, seeing herself and Aldana lined at almost pick’em odds.
Kunitskaya is 4-2 in the UFC, with all 4 wins coming by way of decision. Her opponent Irene Aldana missed weight by a substantial margin, and with a loss, could see her UFC record fall to .500. While you were definitely better off getting the plus-money price on Kunitskaya earlier in the week, you’re still getting some good value at the price of -105 (via 5Dimes) today. Kunitskaya has a high fight-IQ, and Aldana tends to let the fight go where her opponent takes it. If that’s the case, it should be another decision win for ‘Foxy’ Kunitskaya.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy
Greg Hardy comes in as the betting underdog to Tai Tuivasa in the only heavyweight bout on the UFC 264 card. Hardy has a 4-3-1 record in the UFC and has gone the distance in 3 of his 8 octagon appearances. He takes on Tai Tuivasa, who is 5-3 in the UFC, with 4 of his 5 wins coming by way of stoppage. Tuivasa is nothing special by any stretch, but he is leaps and bounds above Greg Hardy. At the price of -125 (via 5Dimes), you can’t pass up an opportunity to fade a fighter that probably shouldn’t be in the UFC. Take Bam Bam in this one.
As far as the total goes, it’s a typical ‘low ranked heavyweight’ type fight, which will almost always mean you should be backing Overs. At the current price of +130 (via 5Dimes), you’re getting a delicious chunk of value on the ‘Fight Goes Distance’ prop, as both fighters have had dull decision wins in their UFC careers.
Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson
Gilbert Burns comes in as the +140 betting underdog to Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson on Saturday night. Burns is 12-4 in the UFC, with 5 of his 12 wins coming by way of decision. The Brazillian ‘Durinho’ is lined at +455 to get the nod on the judge’s scorecards. Still, with the possibility of Burns getting dragged into a striking battle with Wonderboy, if you’re taking the Brazillian, you’re better off taking the moneyline.
As far as the total goes, Wonderboy has gone the distance in 8 of his last 12 UFC fights and tends to start at a very slow, measuring pace. At the price of -120 for the ‘Fight to go the Distance,’ you can’t go wrong, as both fighters have paths to victory that take them to a decision.
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
- Watch McGregor weigh-in for UFC 264
- Watch Poirier weigh-in for UFC 264
- How Poirier beat McGregor at UFC 257
- How McGregor beat Poirier at UFC 178
Dustin Poirier is lined at +130 (via WilliamHill) to win ‘Inside the Distance’ against Conor McGregor. Poirier has won 10 of his last 21 UFC appearances by way of stoppage. He is taking on a Conor McGregor, who has lost in all three of his UFC losses by stoppage. While the +130 is an intriguing bet, there’s no telling what you’re going to get in a fight of this magnitude, and it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that this one goes the distance. With that in mind, save yourself the grief and take Poirier on the moneyline at -125 (via WilliamHill).
As far as the total goes, Conor McGregor has won 7 of his last 12 UFC appearances by way of stoppage. At the current line of -145 on the ‘Under 2.5,’ there isn’t much value considering there is a very good chance the opening minutes of this fight could very much be a staring contest. With that in mind, skip the total altogether.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Dustin Poirier (to Win Fight)||-125||WilliamHill|
|2.5% (1u)||Thompson/Burns (Fight Goes Distance)||-120||5Dimes|
|1.8% (0.72u)||Gilbert Burns (to Win Fight)||+139||Pinnacle|
|2.5% (1u)||Tuivasa/Hardy (Fight Goes Distance)||+150||WilliamHill|
|1.1% (0.44u)||Tai Tuivasa (to Win Fight)||-123||CoolBet|
|1.7% (0.68u)||Yana Kunitskaya (to Win Fight)||+102||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Condit/Griffin (Fight Doesn’t Go Distance)||+150||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Carlos Condit (to Win Fight)||+170||WilliamHill|
|2.5% (1u)||Niko Price (to Win Fight)||+160||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Ryan Hall (to Win Fight)||+195||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Hall/Topuria (Fight Goes Distance)||+135||5Dimes|
|2% (0.8u)||Du Plessis/Giles (Fight Doesn’t Go Distance)||-135||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Dricus Du Plessis (to Win Fight)||-114||CoolBet|
|1% (0.4u)||Tavares/Akmedov (Fight Doesn’t Go Distance)||+160||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Brad Tavares (to Win Fight)||-155||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Zhumagulov/Rivera (Fight Doesn’t Go Distance)||+162||Bet365|
|1% (0.4u)||Amedovski/Yaozong (Fight Goes Distance)||+155||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Alen Amedovski (to Win Fight)||-119||CoolBet|
|2.5% (1u)||Poirier/McGregor (Goes Distance: No), Aldana/Kunitskaya (Goes Distance: Yes)||-133||WilliamHill|
|2.5% (1u)||O’Malley/Moutinho (Fight Goes Distance: No), Jennifer Maia (to Win Fight)||-123||CoolBet|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 261-289, +22.37u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 745-669, +37.15u
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