UFC Betting Trends by Division: UFC 264: The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has cashed at just under a 40% rate over the last year and a half, going 33-50 for a profit of +5.44 units. Conor McGregor comes in as the betting underdog for just the second time in his UFC career, and has the betting public licking their chops at some plus money. Let’s take a look at the most profitable and probable division betting trends coming into UFC 264.
⇢ UFC 264 Best Bets
UFC 2021 Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 161-91-6 | -9.55u |
| Dogs | 91-161-6 | -16.85u |
| Over | 161-93-4 | +12.05u |
| Under | 93-161-4 | -49.01u |
| Fight Goes Distance: Yes | 142-112-4 | +31.27u |
| Fight Goes Distance: No | 112-141-4 | -38.38u |
The most lucrative UFC betting trend to back across the board throughout 2021 continues to be the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop. After six calander months, the ‘Fight Goes Distance: Yes’ prop has gone 142-112-4 for +31.27 units profit, cashing at a 55.9% rate. Along with that, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 63.4% rate, going 161-93-4 for +12.05 units profit on its own.
UFC Lightweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 33-50 | 39.8% | +5.44u | +151 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 10-10 | 50% | +0.29u | +100 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Over | 46-37 | 55.4% | -5.77u | -124 |
The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has been a profitable side to back over the last year and a half, cashing at almost a 40% rate since January of 2020, going 33-50 for a profit of +5.44 units. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the underdog has had value over the last year and a half at the price of +151 or better.
Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ in the 155lbs division has cashed at a 60% rate over the last two and a half years, going 96-64 for a marginal profit of +0.34 units.
UFC Welterweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57-31 | 64.8% | +11.84u | -184 |
| Favorites | 57-30-1 | 65.5% | -1.24u | -190 |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC welterweight division has cashed at a 64.8% rate since the start of last year, going 57-31 for +11.84 units profit. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the ‘Over’ at 170lbs at the price of -184 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term over the last 18 months.
UFC Heavyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 11-7 | 61.1% | +3.96u | ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Over | 35-33 | 51.5% | -2.69u | -106 |
| Dogs | 25-43 | 36.8% | -3.49u | +172 |
The underdog in the UFC heavyweight division over the last year and a half has been a profitable side to back, with the ‘coin flip’ underdog going 11-7 for +3.96 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, fading the favorite of -150 or better in the UFC heavyweight division is a profitable bet to make long term.
The betting total in the UFC Heavyweight division has gone almost straight down the middle over the last year and a half, with the Over going 35-33 since January of 2020.
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 36-38 | 48.6% | +9.44u | +106 |
| Favorites | 49-23-2 | 68.1% | +0.17u | -213 |
The ‘Under’ has gone 36-38 in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last year and a half, but has managed to turn a profit of +9.44 units in that stretch. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, there has been value on the ‘Under’ in the men’s 135lbs division at the price of +106 or better, dating back to January of 2020.
The favorite has cashed at a 68.1% rate since the start of last year, going 49-23-2 for a marginal profit of +0.17 units. Based on the betting trend, the favorite has had value in the men’s bantamweight division at the price of -213 or better.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64-23-1 | 73.6% | +22.79u | -279 |
| Favorites | 53-33-2 | 61.6% | -8.18u | -160 |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division is one of the most profitable betting trends to back over the last 18 months and even over the previous two years. The ‘Over’ at men’s 145lbs has cashed at a 73.6% rate since the start of 2020, going 64-23-1 for +22.79u units profit. Dating back even further, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 68% rate, going 100-47 since the start of 2019.
Based on the betting trend and implied probability, any ‘Over’ in the men’s featherweight division at the price of -279 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term over the last year and a half.
UFC Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 49-26 | 65.3% | -1.43u | -188 |
| Over | 38-37 | 50.7% | -10.43u | -103 |
The betting favorite has cashed at a 65% rate in the UFC middleweight division over the last year and a half, but has failed to turn a profit, going 48-26 for a loss of -1.43 units. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, there has been value fading the favorite at 185lbs at the buy price of +188 or better since January of 2020.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 21-30-1 | 41.2% | +11.48u | +143 |
| Under | 20-32 | 38.5% | +4.59u | +160 |
The underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has earned double digit units over the last year and a half, cashing at a 41% rate, going 21-30-1 for +11.4 units profit since January of 2020. The ‘Under’ has cashed at a 38% rate in that same stretch, going 20-32 for +4.59 units profit. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, any ‘Under’ in the women’s 125lbs division at the price of +160 or better has been a +EV wager worth making long term.
UFC Men’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorite | 12-3 | 80% | +6.29u | ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Favorites | 29-9-1 | 76.3% | +7.94u | -322 |
| Under | 18-21 | 46.2% | +0.93u | +116 |
Coming into UFC 264, the favorite in the Men’s Flyweight division has dominated over the last year and a half, having won 29 of the last 39 fights at men’s 125lbs, going 29-9-1 on the moneyline for +7.94 units profit, dating back to January of 2020.
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