UFC Betting Trends by Division – UFC Vegas 29: The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has cashed at a 73.8% rate since the start of last year, going 62-22 for +21.93 units profit. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Over’ in every men’s UFC bout at 145lbs from January 2020 until now has turned a profit of +$2193, that’s +$26 per fight, win or lose.
⇢ UFC Vegas 29 Best Bets
The ‘coin flip’ dog in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division is one of the hottest active trends coming into UFC Vegas 29. Over the last 18 months, there has been just eight 115lbs bout featuring a favorite of -150 or better, with the dog cashing in six of those eight fights, going 6-2 for +4.39 units profit. The ‘coin flip’ dog is active tonight as Kanako Murata is lined at +110 against the -138 Virna Jandiroba.
Let’s take a look at all of the active division betting trends for UFC Vegas 29
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 143-85-5 | 62.7% | -14.17u |
| Dogs | 85-143-5 | 37.3% | -8.39u |
| Over | 148-82-3 | 64.3% | +13.84u |
| Under | 82-184-3 | 35.7% | -47.55u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 131-99-3 | 57% | +31.1u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 99-131-3 | 43% | -39.88 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 36-30-2 | 54.5% | -3.81u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 30-36-2 | 45.5% | -1.63u |
The most lucrative UFC betting trend to back across the board throughout 2021 has been the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop. After 20 UFC events this calendar year, the ‘Fight Goes Distance: Yes’ prop has gone 131-99-3 for +31.1 units profit, cashing at a 57% rate. Along with that, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 64.3% rate, going 148-82-3 for +13.84 units profit on its own.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62-22 | 73.8% | +21.93u | -282 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 11-10 | 52.4% | +1.33u | -105 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Favorites | 51-31-1 | 61.4% | -8.43u | -159 |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division is one of the most profitable betting trends to back over the last 18 months and even over the previous two years. The ‘Over’ at men’s 145lbs has cashed at a 73.8% rate since the start of 2020, going 62-22 for +21.93 units profit. Dating back even further, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 68.1% rate, going 98-46 since the start of 2019.
Based on the betting trend and implied probability, any ‘Over’ in the men’s featherweight division at the price of -282 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term over the last year and a half.
UFC Heavyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 11-7 | 61.1% | +3.96u | -105 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Dog | 25-39 | 39.1% | +0.51u | +156 |
| Under | 32-32 | 50% | -3.12u | +100 |
The underdog in the UFC heavyweight division over the last year and a half has been a profitable side to back, with the ‘coin flip’ underdog going 11-7 for +3.96 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, fading the favorite of -150 or better in the UFC heavyweight division is a profitable bet to make long term.
The outright underdog in the UFC Heavyweight division has cashed at a 39% rate over the last year and a half, going 25-39 for a marginal half unit profit.
The betting total in the UFC Heavyweight division has gone straight down the middle over the last year and a half, with the Over/Under splitting at 32-32 since January of 2020.
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 36-36 | 50% | +11.44u | +100 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorite | 13-9 | 59.1% | +0.93u | -150 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Favorites | 48-22-2 | 68.6% | +0.72u | -218 |
The ‘Under’ has gone a perfect 36-36 in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last year and a half but has managed to turn a profit of +11.4 units in that stretch. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, there has been value on the ‘Under’ in the men’s 135lbs division at the price of +100 or better, dating back to January of 2020.
The favorite has cashed at a 68.6% rate since the start of last year, going 48-22 for a marginal profit of +0.72 units. Based on the betting trend, the favorite has had value in the men’s bantamweight division at the price of -218 or better.
UFC Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 14-14 | 50% | +0.67u | +100 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Favorites | 48-26 | 64.9% | -2.17u | -185 |
| Over | 38-36 | 51.4% | -9.43u | -106 |
The betting favorite has cashed at a 65% rate in the UFC middleweight division over the last year and a half, but has failed to turn a profit, going 48-26 for a loss of -2.17 units. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, there has been value fading the favorite at 185lbs at the buy price of +185 or better since January of 2020.
UFC Welterweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 17-8-1 | 68% | +4.5u | -150 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Over | 55-28 | 66.3% | +13.71u | -197 |
| Favorites | 54-28-1 | 65.9% | -0.87u | -193 |
The ‘Coin Flip’ favorite of -150 or better over the last year and a half has cashed at a 68% rate in the UFC welterweight division, going 17-8-1 for +4.5 units profit since January 2020. The ‘Over’ has cashed at a 66.3% rate since the start of last year, going 55-28 for +13.71 units profit. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the ‘Over’ at 170lbs at the price of -197 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term over the last 18 months.
UFC Light-Heavyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorite | 11-2 | 84.6% | +6.33u | -150 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Dogs | 18-32-1 | 36% | +0.45u | +178 |
| Over | 26-24 | 52% | -2.62u | -108 |
The ‘Coin Flip’ favorite has won 11 of the last 13 ‘coin flip’ bouts in the UFC Light Heavyweight division, featuring a favorite of -150 or better. The ‘Coin Flip’ chalk side has won 11-2 for +6.33 units profit over the last year and a half. The trend dates back even beyond 2020, having gone 18-8 for +5.96 units profit since January of 2019.
UFC Women’s Strawweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 6-2 | 75% | +4.39u | +100 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Under | 15-24 | 38.5% | +5.67u | +160 |
| Favorites | 25-14 | 64.1% | -4.4u | -179 |
The ‘Coin Flip’ dog in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has won 6 of the last 8 ‘coin flip’ fights at 115lbs, going 6-2 for +4.39 units profit. A $100 bettor who has backed the underdog in each fight featuring a favorite of -150 or better at strawweight has profited +$55 per fight, win or lose, since January of 2020.
The ‘Under’ has been a solid side to back in the strawweight division, cashing at a 38.5% rate since the start of last year, going 15-24 for +5.67 units profit. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the ‘Under’ in the women’s 115lbs division at the price of +160 has been a +EV wager to make long term over the last 18 months.
UFC Lightweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 32-48 | 40% | +6.37u | +150 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 9-9 | 50% | +0.21u | +100 ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Over | 45-35 | 56.3% | -4.53u | -129 |
The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has been a profitable side to back over the last year and a half, cashing at a 40% rate since January of 2020, going 32-48 for a profit of +6.37 units. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the underdog has had value over the last year and a half at the price of +150 or better.
Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ in the 155lbs division has cashed at a 60% rate over the last two and a half years, going 95-62 for +1.58 units profit.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 20-30-1 | 40% | +10.13u | +150 |
| Under | 20-31 | 39.2% | +5.59u | +155 |
The underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has earned double digit units over the last year and a half, cashing at a 40% rate, going 20-30-1 for +10.1 units profit since January of 2020. The ‘Under’ has cashed at a 39% rate in that same stretch, going 20-31 for +5.59 units profit. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, any ‘Under’ in the women’s 125lbs division at the price of +155 or better has been a +EV wager worth making long term.
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