UFC Betting Trends by Division – UFC Vegas 35: The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has become one of the most probable and profitable betting trends in mixed martial arts. Since the start of 2020, the ‘Over’ in the men’s 145lbs division has cashed at a 72% rate, turning a profit of more than 20 units.
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How to Bet using UFC Betting Trends
Sports bettors, have come to lean on what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many recreational sports betting fanatics have come to know and love.
What some MMA bettors don’t realize, is that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting predictions as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out.
While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for the best edge, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.
The popularity of MMA betting has skyrocketed over the past few years, bringing us from the days of having to handicap just a few events per month into the era of an MMA event going on almost every other night. Now, more than ever, the ability to handicap fights at a high volume rate has become a valuable skill that can return dividends at the betting window.
Knowing how often the betting favorite, underdog, or either side of the betting total comes in for each division is a valuable tool to have as a high-volume MMA handicapper. A bettor can understand the market’s tendencies and line originators ‘ accuracy by tracking the division betting trends in the UFC and every MMA organization.
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UFC 2021 Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 202-117-7 | -13.72u |
| Dogs | 117-202-7 | -19.58u |
| Over | 119-123-4 | +9.6u |
| Under | 123-119-4 | -48.44u |
| Fight Goes Distance: Yes | 172-150-4 | +23.8u |
| Fight Goes Distance: No | 150-172-4 | -29.13u |
The most lucrative UFC betting trend to back across the board throughout 2021 continues to be the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop. After eight calendar months, the ‘Fight Goes Distance: Yes’ prop has gone 172-150-4 for +23.8 units profit, cashing at a 53.4% rate. Along with that, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 61.8% rate, going 199-123-4 for +9.6 units profit on its own.
UFC Betting Trends: Coin Flip Fights
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 52-42-4 | 55.3% | -3.31u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 42-52-4 | 44.7% | -4.22u |
UFC Vegas 35 has five ‘coin flip’ fights on the card seeing a favorite lined at odds of -150. Historically, the ‘coin flip’ fight has been dominated by the underdog. However, over the last seven months (Since January of 2021), the ‘coin flip’ favorite has won 55.3% of fights in the UFC, going 52-42-4.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67-26-1 | 72% | +21.64u | -256 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 13-12 | 52% | +1.58u | +100 |
| Favorites | 55-36-3 | 60.4% | -10.07u | -154 |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division is one of the most profitable betting trends to back over the year and a half, and even over the previous two years. The ‘Over’ at men’s 145lbs has cashed at a 72% rate since the start of 2020, going 67-26-1 for +21.64 units profit. Dating back even further, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 67.3% rate, going 103-50-1 since the start of 2019.
Based on the betting trend and implied probability, any ‘Over’ in the men’s featherweight division at the price of -256 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term over the last year and a half.
UFC Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 20-13 | 60.6% | +2.56u | -154 |
| Favorites | 55-27 | 67.1% | +1.59u | -204 |
| Over | 43-39 | 52.4% | -8.27u | -110 |
The betting favorite has cashed at a 60.6% rate in the UFC middleweight division over the last year and a half, going 55-27 for +1.59 units profit. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, there has been value betting the favorite at 185lbs at the buy price of -204 or better since January of 2020.
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 39-48 | 44.8% | +3.86u | +123 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 13-14 | 48.1% | +0.32u | +108 |
| Favorites | 56-29-2 | 65.9% | -0.47u | -192 |
The most profitable betting trend to back in the UFC men’s bantamweight division over the last year and a half has been the ‘Under’, which has cashed at a 44.8% rate since January of 2020. With a 39-48 record, the ‘Under’ has turned a profit of +3.86 units. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, any ‘Under’ in the men’s 135lbs division has been a +EV wager worth backing at the price of +123 or better.
UFC Welterweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 19-8-1 | 70.4% | +6.13u | -150 |
| Over | 61-37-1 | 62.2% | +9.25u | -164 |
The most profitable betting trend in the UFC welterweight division over the last year and a half has been the ‘Over,’ which has cashed at a 62.2% rate, going 61-37-1 for +9.25 units profit.
Based on the betting trend and implied probability, any ‘Over’ in the UFC welterweight division over the last year and a half at the price of -164 or better has been a +EV wager worth making.
UFC Light-Heavyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 28-27 | 50.9% | +2.04u | -104 |
| Favorites | 35-19-1 | 64.8% | -0.3u | -185 |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC light heavyweight division has managed to turn a profit in the last year and a half. Cashing at a 50.9% rate since January of 2020, the ‘Over’ at 205lbs in the UFC has gone 28-27 for +2.04 units profit. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the ‘Over’ in the light heavyweight division at -104 or better has been a +EV wager worth backing long term.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 23-32-1 | 41.8% | +11.71u | +139 |
| Under | 22-34 | 39.3% | +4.97u | +155 |
The underdog in the UFC women’s flyweight division has been a profitable side to back over the last year and a half. Cashing at a 41.8%% rate since the start of 2020, the underdog in the women’s 125lbs division has gone 23-32-1 for a profit of +11.71 units on the moneyline. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the dog at women’s flyweight has been a +EV wager worth making at the price of +139 or better.
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