UFC Vegas 26 Betting Trends | UFC Picks: The hottest division betting trend coming into this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 26 is in the men’s featherweight division, where the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 72.4% rate over the last year and a half, going 55-21 for +18.79 units profit. Let’s take a look at all of the active betting trends for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.
⇢ UFC Vegas 26 Best Bets
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 111-58-4 | 65.7% | -3.8u |
| Dogs | 58-111-4 | 34.3% | -13.81u |
| Over | 109-62-2 | 63.7% | +6.09u |
| Under | 62-109-2 | 36.3% | -34.99u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 93-78-2 | 54.4% | +11.43u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 78-93-2 | 45.6% | -23.48u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorite | 26-20-2 | 56.5% | +0.3u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 20-26-2 | 43.5% | -4.48u |
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 17-26-1 | 39.5% | +10.07u | +153 |
| Under | 17-27 | 38.6% | +2.98u | +159 |
Coming into UFC Vegas 26, the betting underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has turned a profit of a +10.07 units on the moneyline over the last 17 months, going 17-26-1. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has cashed in 17 of the last 44 women’s 125lbs bouts, dating back to January of 2020, going 17-27 for +2.98 units profit. Based on the betting trends, and using implied probability, any underdog over the last year and a half at the price of +153 or better in the women’s flyweight division has been a +EV bet worth making, while any ‘Under’ at +159 or better has also been a profitable wager to make long term.
UFC Welterweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 17-7-1 | 70.8% | +5.5u | ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Over | 49-26 | 65.3% | +11.43u | -188 |
| Favorites | 50-24-1 | 67.6% | +1.53u | -209 |
Coming into this Saturday, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at a 65.3% since the start of last year, going 49-26 for +11.43 units profit. Meanwhile, the betting favorite has turned a marginal profit in that stretch, going 50-24-1 for +1.53 units profit. Based on the division betting trends, any ‘Over’ at the buy price of -188 or better, has been a +EV wager to make long term, based on implied probability.
UFC Heavyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dog | 11-6 | 64.7% | +4.96u | ‘Coin Flip’ |
| Dog | 23-34 | 40.4% | +2.47u | +148 |
| Under | 29-28 | 50.9% | -2.02u | -104 |
Coming into this weekend, the betting underdog in the UFC heavyweight division has won 23 of the last 57 bouts, dating back to January of last year. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has cashed at a 50.9% rate, but has failed to turn a profit, going 29-28 for -2.02 units. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, any underdog in the UFC heavyweight division over the last 17 months at the price of +148 or better has been a +EV wager to make longer term.
UFC Lightweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 29-42 | 40.8% | +7.79u | +145 |
| Over | 39-32 | 54.9% | -5.7u | -122 |
The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has cashed at a 40.8% rate since the start of last year, going 29-42 for +7.79 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and implied probability, any underdog in the UFC 155lbs division at +145 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term. Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 54.9% rate in the last 17 months, going 39-32, but has failed to turn. Based on implied probability, fading this trend and backing the ‘Under’ at the price of +122 or better would be a profitable wager to make long term.
UFC Women’s Strawweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 14-24 | 36.8% | +2.55u | +172 |
| Favorites | 25-13 | 65.8% | -3.4u | -192 |
Coming into this weekend, the ‘Under’ in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has cashed at a 36.8% rate since the start of last year, going 14-24 for +2.55 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and implied probability, any ‘Under’ in the women’s 115lbs division at the price of +172 or better has been a +EV wager to make long term. Meanwhile, the betting favorite has won 25 of the last 38 fights in the women’s strawweight division, cashing at a 65.8% rate over the last year and a half. Based on the betting trend, any favorite of the implied buy price of -192 or better has been a profitable bet to make.
UFC Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 34-32 | 51.5% | +2.91u | -106 |
| Favorites | 45-21 | 68.2% | +1.18u | -214 |
Headed into UFC Vegas 26, the ‘Under’ has cashed at a 51.5% rate in the UFC Middleweight division over the last 17 months, going 34-32 for +2.91 units profit. Meanwhile, the betting favorite has cashed at a 68.2% rate, going 45-21 for +1.18 units profit in that stretch. Based on the betting trends, the ‘Under’ in the 185lbs division has been a +EV wager to make at the price of -106 or better, while the middleweight favorite has been a fine investment at the buy price of at least -214.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55-21 | 72.4% | +18.79u | -262 |
| Favorites | 48-27-1 | 64% | -4.88u | -178 |
Coming into Saturday, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division is one of the most profitable and probable betting trends in MMA betting. Over the last 17 months, the ‘Over’ at men’s 145lbs in the UFC has gone 55-21 for +18.79 units profit. A win percentage of 72.4%. Based on that betting trend, any ‘Over’ in Men’s Featherweight at the price of -262 or better has been a profitable bet to make long term. Meanwhile, the betting favorite has been a probable side to back, cashing at a 64% rate since the start of 2020, but the chalk side has failed to turn a profit on the moneyline.
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