UFC Vegas 26 Picks and Best Bets: UFC Vegas 26 takes place this Saturday, May 8th from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is headlined by a Women’s Flyweight bout between Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez. Let’s take a look at the best bets on the board for this Saturday’s UFC fight night.
Michelle Waterson vs Marina Rodriguez Pick
Marina Rodriguez comes in as the -195 betting favorite against the veteran Michelle Waterson, in a bout between two strawweight fighters at the agreed weight of 125lbs. Rodriguez is 3-1-2 in her UFC career and is coming off an impressive knock-out victory over 115lbs prospect Amanda Ribas. As for Michelle Waterson, she is just 4-4 in her last 8 UFC appearances, with each of those 4 wins coming by way of decision.
Based on the current odds, the market expects this fight to reach the judge’s scorecards, as the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop is lined at -205. However, the betting value may, in fact, be on this fight ending before the judges are needed. We saw Marina Rodriguez put Amanda Ribas away in the second round, in a fight which saw her cash at 11-1 odds to ‘Inside the Distance.’ Rodriguez faces a much more experienced Michelle Waterson, who is just a year older than her but has almost twice as many fights in the UFC. With that being said, this fight is at 125lbs, and Michelle Waterson, who is already a reckless striker, to begin with, may even be slower up a weight class, in this short notice 5-round fight.
When looking at the betting odds, you have the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop sitting at +175; however, the real value on the prop board in this fight may be on Rodriguez to win by stoppage, as she is currently lined at +257 (via 5Dimes) to win ‘Inside the Distance.’
Waterson hasn’t finished a fight by stoppage in over 5 years, and with all due respect, her best days may be behind her. Marina Rodriguez is coming off a very motivating stoppage victory in her last fight and has just as many wins by stoppage to her name in her fighting career as she has decisions. With the short notice nature of the fight and it being up a weight-class, this match-up and situation does seem to favor the harder-hitting Rodriguez, and the best bet on the board looks to be on the ‘Rodriguez: Inside the Distance.’
Apart from the match-up, based on the division betting trend at Women’s Flyweight there is some decent value on the ‘Under 4.5 Rounds’ prop at the current price of +200. The ‘Under’ has cashed in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division at a 38.6% rate since the start of last year, for an implied buy price of +159 or better. Not to mention, this is a 5 round fight, between two women at a smaller weight class, fighting a division up. All the more reason to take a shot at Rodriguez to win by stoppage.
Donald Cerrone vs Alex Morono Pick
Alex Morono comes into this co-main event spot against Donal Cerrone on short notice and comes in as the +165 (via Pinnacle) betting underdog. Cerrone will likely call it quits after this bout and was in training camp to face Diego Sanchez, who was cut by the UFC in the lead up to this weekend’s card.
Morono is 5-3 in his last 8 fights dating back to 2018 and has won 3 of those 8 fights by way of decision. As for Donal Cerrone, he is 4-5-1 in his last 10 fights dating back to 2018, with 6 of those 10 fights going the distance.
Based on the current line, there looks to be market value on Alex Morono at the current price of +165. Morono will try to avoid losing 3 of his last 4 octagon appearances and should be able to keep the much older Cerrone at bay with his range, and if he can get off to a hot start, it will be his fight to lose.
Donald Cerrone is coming off a majority draw against Niko Price, a fight that Cerrone himself felt that he lost. ‘Cowboy’ will look to end his UFC career with a victory and hopes to avoid ending his tenure in the UFC with a 0-5-1 record, dating back to his loss to Tony Ferguson in 2019. Cerrone hasn’t won by stoppage since a head kick finish of Alexander Hernandez in January of 2019.
This is a fight that is much closer than what the odds are indicating. Short notice or not, Alex Morono is the type of fighter that relishes opportunities like this one and should be in fine form against an over-the-hill Cerrone, whose best days are certainly behind him.
In the UFC Welterweight division the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 65.3% rate over the last 17 months, going 49-26 for +11.4 units profit since the start of 2020. The betting market favoring this fight going the distance (-175 via 5Dimes), you are basically looking at a battle of ‘who can score more points’, and when you’re putting up a 30-year-old Morono who has shown relatively decent wrestling in his past performances up against a 38-year-old Cerrone, you are more than likely going to get a very close fight headed into the final round.
At the current price, you can’t deny the value on Morono at +165, and considering that these two fighters have gone the distance in 11 of their last 18 fights combined, you have to think that Morono has a much better than a 37% shot at winning this fight, especially if it’s already a foregone conclusion that this one will reach the judge’s scorecards. Take Morono on the moneyline, and use the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop as a strong parlay piece.
Neil Magny vs Geoff Neal Pick
Neil Magny brings his 17-7 UFC record into this Saturday and is the betting underdog against ‘Hands of Steel’ Geoff Neal. Neal is coming off a brutalizing loss to Stephen Thompson, a fight that saw him take an excessive amount of damage over the entirety of the 25-minute bout. He comes in with a 6-1 record since making his Dana White Contender Series debut back in 2017 and has won 5 of his 7 octagon appearances by way of stoppage.
This fight looks like the typical, ‘favorite inside the distance, dog by decision’ approach should be applied. Neil Magny hadn’t lost a fight by stoppage since a knock-out loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio back in 2018; since then, he has put together a 3-1 record, with his most recent loss coming to the highly-rated Michael Chiesa back in January.
The underdog has won 37.7% of fights in the UFC Welterweight division dating back to January of 2020, going 57-94-1 for a marginal profit of +3.9 units. Neil Magny has performed well as the betting underdog in his career, and with a 17-7 UFC record, he’s profited +12.13 units on the moneyline since his 2013 octagon debut.
Based on the current betting odds, the value looks to be on Neil Magny at +166 (via Pinnacle). Meanwhile, there is also a case to be made for betting the ‘Under’ at +130. Geoff Neal has an 83% finish rate, and has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 4 of his 7 fights in the UFC. By taking a shot at Mangy at plus money while also taking a shot at the Under, you are covering yourself in the event that Magny ends up getting finished by Neal early.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Maurice Greene Pick
This fight is not going to be pretty. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is 4-4 in his last eight UFC appearances and comes in as the -170 betting favorite against Maurice Greene, who holds a 4-3 record in the UFC since making his debut back in 2018.
This fight comes down to ‘who is going to gas out first,’ more or less. de Lima has only been to the third round once in his UFC career, while Maurice Greene has gone to the third round once and has gone all the way to a decision. As far as the edge goes for the overall gas tank between these two fighters, you have to give a slight advantage to Greene, who even has a third-round stoppage victory to his name in the octagon.
Maurice Greene comes in as the betting underdog and will have a 6-inch height and 5-inch reach advantage, which may play a significant role in how this fight plays out. Statistically, Greene absorbs far more strikes per minute than de Lima; however, that may taper off in this fight, considering the advantage that Greene should have when it comes to his striking and range management.
Apart from the overall size advantage, the other significant edge worth noting in this fight is the matter of the takedown. de Lima has a 60% takedown accuracy in his UFC career, with Maurice Greene’s takedown defense sitting below 30%. While de Lima isn’t much of a submission threat, if Greene is unable to evade the takedown early in this fight, we might see de Lima get on top and wear down on Greene, who has been susceptible to putting himself in bad positions when on his back.
It is pretty hard to judge these lower-rated, unranked UFC heavyweights at the end of the day. We only see a small glimpse of their skills in the cage, especially for fighters who have numerous first-round finishes to their records.
As far as their upside goes, both of these fighters have probably reached their ceiling regarding how far they can go with the skills they have. However, with that being said, if you had to pick which of these two fighters had more upside potential at this stage of their careers, the pick should probably be Maurice Greene, simply because of the size and reach advantage he holds over the majority of his opponents.
When it comes to the betting total, de Lima has gone ‘Under’ in 7 of his last 8 fights in the UFC, while Maurice Greene has gone 4-3 to the ‘Under’ in his 7 Octagon appearances. The current betting line sees the ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop sitting at -155 (via 5Dimes), which may have some value on a match-up between two fighters that have seen the majority of their fights end in the first round.
As far as betting on a side, Maurice Greene probably isn’t the better fighter in this match-up, but the odds should be much closer than where they stand right now. Greene realistically has atleast a 40% chance of winning this fight, which would mean there is market value on him at the current price of +170 (via Pinnacle) when the line should probably be closer to +150.
de Lima has been a bet against fighter in his most recent run in the UFC, as a $100 bettor who has backed every one of his opponents over his last 8 fights has gone 4-4 for +$218 profit. Meanwhile, Maurice Greene has not exactly had himself a high point career in the UFC, he’s still managed to be a profitable fighter on the moneyline, going 4-3 for +1.28 units since his 2018 UFC debut. The pick is Maurice Greene at +170.
Diego Ferriera vs Gregor Gillespie Pick
Gregor Gillespie returns to the octagon for the first time since taking his first L of his career back in November of 2019. Gillespie was scheduled to return to action in March against Brad Riddell, but that fight was scrapped due to covid protocol. He instead takes on a very similar fighter in Carlos Diego Ferreira, whose only three losses of his career come to guys named Dariush (x2) and Poirier.
Gillespie comes in as the -172 betting favorite, with Ferreira on the comeback at +165. Both fighters have had similarly unfortunate paths as of late as far as their overall careers go.
Ferriera’s career was affected massively by the pandemic; after defeating Anthony Pettis in January of 2020, Ferriera had his fight with Drew Dober canceled in May. When the fight was eventually rebooked for November, Ferreira had to withdraw due to contracting covid. He returned to the octagon in February of this year, taking another decision loss in a rematch against Beneil Dariush.
Gillespie took the first loss of his career back in November of 2019 at UFC 244, losing to Kevin Lee by knockout from a devastating head kick. Gillespie did not fight at all in 2020, taking an extended break from training, with hopes of returning to the octagon in the summer of 2020. Of course, those plans were nullified by the global pandemic, and Gillespie would have to wait until 2021 to get back to fighting.
Both fighters are somewhat late bloomers by UFC standards. Ferreira has just three career losses but is a 36-year-old lightweight, while Gillespie is two years younger; he is still 34 years old, with just one loss to his name, but still doesn’t have much race track to work with when it comes to the trajectory of his career. Both fighters’ careers somewhat stalled in 2020, and from a booking perspective, this bout is a perfect match-up between two fighters who have taken similar paths to return to the octagon with high hopes for what could be the defining stage of their careers.
Apart from being a fan of both of these guys, there’s still the matter of picking a winner and finding value in this fight from a betting perspective. While it is tough to bet against a fan favorite like Ferreira, Gregor Gillespie has been a betting favorite of -260 or better in all but one of his octagon appearances, and he is currently priced at the affordable line of -175 (via 5Dimes).
Gillespie has won 6 of his 7 UFC appearances by way of stoppage, going 6-1 for +5.69 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. The ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop has turned a profit of +4.81 units in his UFC career, with the ‘Under’ going 5-2 for +4.68 units since his 2016 UFC debut.
As for Ferriera has an 8-3 record in the UFC, with 5 wins by stoppage and 3 by decision. A $100 bettor who has backed Ferreira to win by decision in all 11 of his octagon appearances has turned a profit of +$720.
While you are somewhat betting into uncertainty by backing Gillespie at this price against Ferreira, you have to imagine that this will be one of the most important fights in the career of Gregor Gillespie, and we should expect to see a much-improved fighter than the one we saw all the way back in November of 2019. It’s also worth mentioning that a high-level fighter that takes the first loss of their career typically returns to the octagon with an improved performance in their comeback fight. The fact that Gillespie has had a year and a half off may be a factor, for better or for worse, but there is probably more upside on Gregor in this spot than on Ferreira.
While Diego Ferreira has had a fantastic run in the UFC, his return against Bengal Dariush earlier this year was somewhat underwhelming, and if he comes out with the same type of performance against a much more dangerous striker in Gillespie, the fight may be a tough one for him to navigate successfully.
While you can make a case for there being value on Gillespie to win ‘Inside the Distance’ at the current price of +270 (via 5Dimes). The best on the board in this fight is probably the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop at +135.
Both Gillespie and Ferreira combine for 11 wins by stoppage in their UFC careers, with the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop cashing for +9.18 units between the two of them. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has gone a combined 11-7 for +7.55 units between the octagon careers of both Gillespie and Ferreira.
The market currently favors this fight to go the distance, with the ‘yes’ lined at -160 and the ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop sitting currently at -175. This is a spot where going against the grain may pay off, as we are betting on two fighters who haven’t really shown us much of their skills as of late, and one of these men could be due for a breakout performance. Take the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ at +135.
As far as betting aside, the value is probably on Gillespie here at the price of -175. Ferreira has performed well as an underdog, but his best days might be behind him as a 36-year-old lightweight. Gillespie is not that far behind him at 34, but it feels like he has one more run left in him, and at -175, the price might be right as a viable parlay piece.
Amanda Ribas vs Angela Hill Pick
Amanda Ribas is returning from her first loss in the UFC as a -175 favorite against the veteran Angela Hill. Hill is lined at +160 (via 5Dimes) on the comeback and is just off the heels of a decision victory to Ashley Yoder less than a month ago at UFC Vegas 21.
Ribas is coming off a knock out loss to Marina Rodriguez back in January at UFC 257, in a fight that saw her get dropped early in the second round, losing the contest as a -300 favorite, with Rodriguez cashing at 11-1 odds to win ‘Inside the Distance.’
As for Angela Hill, she is 8-9 in the UFC but has improved drastically over the past few years in comparison to when she made her debut back in 2017. Hill is 5-4 since the start of 2019 and has won 2 of those 9 fights by way of stoppage, cashing for +3.65 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop in that stretch.
While Ribas may be the better all-around MMA fighter in this match-up, you probably have to give the striking edge to Angela Hill, whose boxing has improved substantially in her stand-up game over her past few appearances. If Ribas finds herself on the feet with Hill for longer than she should be, it may be another rough night for her, especially when coming off of such a damaging knockout like the one she suffered against Marina Rodriguez. There is a slight possibility that Ribas has become chinny, and while Angela Hill doesn’t necessarily have knockout power, she has the volume and accuracy to make it a dangerous night for an opponent that may not want to be getting hit. This fight is closer than the odds indicated, and Angela Hill at the current price of +160 is worth a small shot.
As for the betting total, between Angela Hill’s last 9 fights and Amanda Ribas’ 5 career octagon appearances, the Under has a record of 6-8 for +9.95 units profit. The only time in that stretch that Angela Hill has lost by stoppage has been by armbar to Randa Markos. We saw Ribas finish Paige VanZant via armbar in her most recent victory, and with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop sitting at +145 (via 5Dimes), there is definitely value on one of these women finding the finish at that price.
Ben Rothwell vs Philipe Lins Pick
The feature bout on the prelims is a heavyweight tilt between the 39-year-old Ben Rothwell and the former PFL heavyweight champion, Philipe Lins. Rothwell comes into this fight having won just 2 of his last 6 fights, with all 4 losses coming by way of decision. Philipe Lins put together a 3-3 record in Bellator, but his most impressive run was in the 2018 PFL tournament, which saw him go 4-0 and win the heavyweight gold.
Since debuting in the UFC, Lins has gone 0-2, suffering a loss to Andrei Arlovski back in May of last year, and then followed that up by getting knocked out by Tanner Boser only a month later. Both fighters are on different trajectories in their careers, as Lins believes he still has one left run in him to make it to the top of the division, while Ben Rothwell is settling into the twilight of his career and hopes to tally up some ‘legacy wins’ down the stretch, before calling it quits.
This fight is extremely close to call, and you’re probably better off waiting until fight day and getting behind whichever side ends up closing closer to plus money. In fact, the ‘coin flip’ underdog in the UFC heavyweight division has won 64.7% of ‘coin flip’ fights, with the favorite closing at -150 or better. The underdog has gone 11-6 in those fights for +4.96 units profit. Dating back even further than 2020, the ‘coin flip dog’ has been a +EV wager to make long term. Since the start of 2019, the ‘coin flip’ underdog against a favorite of -150 or better in the UFC heavyweight division has gone 19-11-1 for +8.25 units profit.
The betting market opened with Lins as the -115 favorite and sat around a ‘pick’em’ price through the month of April, but money has now come in on Rothwell, making Philipe Lins the chalk underdog at -105.
As far as the total goes, the ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop is currently lined at +145 (via Pinnacle), which seems rather generous in a bout between two guys that aren’t exactly elite level heavyweights, but while sitting just outside of the top 15, they are just a tier or two below the very best heavyweights in the UFC. While Rothwell has a tendency to go the distance as of late, Philipe Lins has only gone the distance once in his last 12 fights, dating back to 2014.
The ‘Under’ has cashed in 50.9% of fights over the last 17 months, going 29-28 for a loss of -2.02 units, dating back to January of 2020. When it comes down to a 50/50 prop on either side over the last year and a half, if you were playing the plus-side of these totals in the heavyweight division in every fight, you would be making profits long term. Take the Under at +145.
Phil Hawes vs Kyle Daukaus Pick
It’s a battle of two ‘late bloomer up and comers’ as Kyle Daukaus makes his 4th octagon appearance as the ‘coin flip’ favorite against ‘Megatron’ Phil Hawes. Hawes is the underdog here with a 3-0 record since making his octagon debut last September in Dana White’s Contender Series.
This is a tough fight to break down and one that the betting trends are helpful to lean on. It’s another instance similar to the Nchukwi/Park fight, in that, despite the ‘Under’ cashing at a 51.5% rate over the last 17 months, there seems to be some betting value on this one going the distance.
Kyle Daukaus has a 2-1 record in the octagon, between his 1-1 record in the UFC and his unanimous decision victory on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019. All three of Daukaus’ appearances under the UFC banner have gone to decision. Bauhaus has a brawling style, which probably isn’t the best stylistic match-up for the more technical Hawes. However, when Hawes faced a stiff chinned opponent in his last fight against Nassourdine Imavov, we saw him go the full 15 minutes. At the current price of +180 (via BetOnline) on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, it’s pretty much undeniable that this prop has swelled a bit further than what the true odds would indicate.
As for aside, it’s a very tough fight between two decent prospects in the middleweight division, and it comes down to Daukaus having just a slight edge in his all-around MMA game. Phil Hawes may be the harder hitter, but Daukaus probably has more weapons to his disposal than Hawes. Pointing back to the division betting trends, the favorite has won 68.2% of fights at middleweight over the last year and a half, and while it may seem trivial to some, it’s worth tracking when the oddsmakers and the market get it right and when they get it wrong. Daukaus opened as a -200 favorite in late April when this fight was announced. Money has come in on the otherside to the point where he sits now at almost ‘pick’em’ price.
The fact of the matter is that the oddsmakers and the market have a good read on this division. When a favorite gets bet against and manages to withstand the resistance with buyback, they seem to be successful more times than not, and that’s with historical data to back it up. With that being said, it’s hard to be overly confident on any side in this fight, and you more or less have to approach this one from a value betting perspective; and the betting value looks to be on Kyle Daukas at -126 (via Pinnacle).
L’udovit Klein vs Michael Trizano Pick
‘Mr. Highlight’ L’udovit Klein makes his sophomore return to the octagon on Saturday, coming in as the -240 betting favorite against the 8-1 Mike ‘the Lone Wolf’ Trizano. Trizano is 2-1 in the UFC but hasn’t seen action since May of 2019.
The betting value in this fight looks to be on the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop, which is currently lined at -111 (via Pinnacle). Since the start of 2020, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a whopping 72% rate in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division, going 55-21 for +18.79 units, making it one of the most probable and profitable trends to back in the UFC over the last year and a half.
With the betting market favoring Klein so heavily in this fight, ‘Over’ backers are getting a heavily reduced price on a trend that has cashed routinely over the last 17 months. For Klein, this will be his first fight on North American soil, so there may be some pre-fight jitters, and maybe a few extra hiccups are thrown into his fight week rituals. Apart from that, it should be business as usual, but it’s still a factor worth mentioning.
Trizano is coming off his first professional loss, albeit two years ago. If the betting market expects this one to be an easy fight for Klein, they may be mistaken. Klein is warranted to be the betting favorite, but at -240, we may be getting ahead of ourselves here. Take the ‘Over’ and pass on the moneyline.
Ryan Benoit vs Zarrukh Adashev Pick
Ryan Benoit comes in as the short betting favorite in a flyweight bout against UFC huckster Zarrukh Adashev. Benoit is 3-5 in the UFC and has lost 4 of his last 6 fights. He is facing a fighter in Adashev who is 0-2 in the UFC and 3-3 overall in professional MMA. The former WKA kickboxing champion has had a rough transition into pro-MMA and is on the brink of going 0-3 in the octagon and falling to sub .500 in his professional career.
Adashev is a hard fighter to read and has fooled the market on more than one occasion in his very short MMA career. He was stopped by Tyson Nam in a fight that saw Nam cash at +333 to win ‘Inside the Distance’ and then followed that performance up with a solid showing against the -450 favorite Su Mudaerji back in January. Mudaerji cashed at +350 to win by Decision, in a fight that the market was heavily expecting him to win by stoppage, early. All in all, Zarrukh Adashev has been a tough fighter for the market to get a read on.
Benoit is a relatively good fighter who has been able to compete at the UFC level since his debut all the way back in 2013. He has also run into a large streak of bad luck throughout his career, with 2 of his last 3 losses have come by way of split Decision, one of those losses coming to the current #2 ranked Flyweight, Brandon Moreno.
This fight is more or less two fighters with their backs against the wall in two totally different stages of their UFC careers. While Benoit is only 3 years older than Adashev, he has had a much longer UFC career that spans back eight years. Adashev made his pro debut in 2015 but didn’t make his debut in Bellator until 2018, so he is still a relatively green fighter who should probably not be such a short underdog against the much more well-rounded Benoit.
In a lower-level UFC prelim like this one, it’s always good to look at the division betting trends to see how similar fights have played out over a particular time period. The ‘coin flip’ favorite in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division has cashed at an 80% rate over the last year and a half, going 12-3 for +6.29 units. Benoit is currently lined as a ‘coin flip’ favorite of -150 or better, sitting at the current price of -120 (via Pinnacle).
As for the betting total, the fight probably goes the distance, but at the current number, there isn’t very much value on the distance props on either side. Benoit has gone ‘Over’ the betting total in 5 of his 8 UFC appearances, but at odds of -200 on ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ in this fight, the prop is simply priced out on both sides.
Tafon Nchukwi vs Jun Yong Park Pick
Tafon Nchukwi is the betting favorite against ‘the Iron Turtle’ Jun Yong Park in just his second UFC appearance and his third in the APEX octagon. The fighter out of Cameroon comes into Saturday’s bout with an undefeated 5-0 record, with 4 wins by stoppage, 1 decision. He takes on Jun Yong Park, who is 2-1 in the UFC, with 2 decisions wins by 1 loss by submission.
Nchukwi is the ‘coin flip’ -138 favorite (via CoolBet) which is warranted as he comes in as the younger, taller, and longer fighter in this match-up. There is definitely value on the undefeated African here. Nchukwi probably wins this fight 6 out of 10 times at the very least, and if that’s the case, this fight should be lined closer to -150 as opposed to the current price of -138.
Despite the ‘Under’ cashing at a 51.5% rate in the UFC Middleweight division over the last year and a half, there looks to be betting value on the ‘Over,’ and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ props in this match-up. There is a reason why Park is known as ‘the Iron Turtle,’ and it’s primarily because of his iron-clad chin and his striking defense. He’s a relatively conservative fighter, and for better or for worse, he seems to allow his opponents to dictate the pace of the fight, more times than not. Meanwhile, Tafon Nchukwi is almost the exact opposite. He is an overwhelming big hitter with knock-out power, who has knocked out the likes of current UFC fighter William Knight, albeit in another promotion (CFFC).
Between both these fighters, 3 of their last 5 octagon appearances have gone the distance. Apart from the division betting trends, we’ve seen 54.4% (93-78-2, +11.43u) of fights go the distance in 2021, and based on that alone, any ‘Yes’ at -120 or better has been a profitable bet to make long term. At the current betting price of -110 (via SportsInteraction), you can’t deny the betting value on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop in this one.
Christian Aguilera vs Carlston Harris Pick
Carlston Harris makes his UFC debut on Saturday in the lead-off fight on the UFC Vegas 26 prelims. Harris faces Christina Aguilera, who comes in as the betting underdog with 2 octagon appearances to his name, and a 1-1 UFC record.
Harris is the former Brave FC welterweight champion and held a 2-1 record in Brave before moving to Brazil to compete in Shooto Brasil. Carlston honed his skills in Brazil, putting together two easy victories before moving back to tougher competition in the UAE Warriors promotion in early 2021.
Harris will now make his long-awaited UFC debut and is a reasonable betting favorite at the current betting odds of -155 (via 5Dimes). Based on implied probability, there looks to be some betting value on Carlston Harris on the moneyline. Harris likely wins this fight 6.5 times out of 10, and with the current line sitting at -155, you are getting about a 7% edge on Harrison, who should be lined closer to -185.
As for the betting total, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 65.3% rate in the UFC Welterweight division over the past 17 months. Based on that betting trend, any ‘Over’ in this division at the price of -188 or better has been a +EV wager worth making long term. Currently, the betting total sits with the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop lined at +110 (via 5Dimes).
AlMac’s Best Bets
| Stake | Wager | Odds | Sportsbook |
| 2.5% (1u) | Marina Rodriguez (Inside the Distance) | +257 | 5Dimes |
| 2.5% (1u) | Alex Morono (to Win Fight) | +165 | Pinnacle |
| 2.5% (1u) | Neal Magny (to Win Fight) | +166 | Pinnacle |
| 1.5% (0.6u) | Magny/Neal (Under 2.5 Rounds) | +130 | Pinnacle |
| 2.5% (1u) | deLima/Greene (Under 2.5 Rounds) | -135 | 5Dimes |
| 1.7% (0.68u) | Maurice Greene (to Win Fight) | +170 | Pinnacle |
| 2.5% (1u) | Gillespie/Ferreira (Fight Goes Distance: No) | +135 | 5Dimes |
| 2.5% (1u) | Ribas/Hill (Fight Goes Distance: No) | +145 | 5Dimes |
| 1% (0.4u) | Angela Hill (to Win Fight) | +160 | 5Dimes |
| 1.8% (0.72u) | Philipe Lins (to Win Fight) | -105 | 5Dimes |
| 1% (0.4u) | Rothwell/Lins (Under 2.5 Rounds) | +155 | 5Dimes |
| 1% (0.4u) | Hawes/Daukaus (Fight Goes Distance) | +180 | BetOnline |
| 1% (0.4u) | Kyle Daukaus (to Win Fight) | -126 | Pinnacle |
| 1.5% (0.6u) | Klein/Trizano (Over 2.5 Rounds) | -112 | Pinnacle |
| 2.5% (1u) | Ryan Benoit (to Win Fight) | -120 | Pinnacle |
| 1% (0.4u) | Nchukwi/Park (Fight Goes Distance) | -110 | SportsInter. |
| 1% (0.4u) | Tafon Nchuckwi (to Win Fight) | -138 | CoolBet |
| 1% (0.4u) | Aguilera/Harris (Over 2.5 Rounds) | +110 | 5Dimes |
| 1% (0.4) | Carlston Harris (to Win Fight) | -155 | 5Dimes |
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 173-196, +8.4u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 657-576, +23.18u
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