UFC Vegas 29 Picks and Best Bets: The Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung will try to avoid just his second losing streak in his UFC career, as he comes in as a coin flip underdog to ’50k’ Dan Ige on Saturday at UFC Vegas 29.
⇢ UFC Betting Trends
Coming into UFC Vegas 29, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has cashed at a 73.8% rate over the last 18 months, going 62-22 for +21.93 units since January of 2020. The betting total is currently lined at 4.5 rounds, at around -110 on both sides.
Chan Sung Jung vs. Dan Ige Pick
Coming into the bout, Chan Sung Jung is 6-3 in the UFC and has won 6 of his 9 octagon appearances by way of stoppage, turning a profit of +12.36 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop in his UFC career.
Meanwhile, Dan Ige is 7-2 in the UFC, having won by the judge’s scorecards in 4 of his 9 octagon appearances, turning a profit of +9.08 units on the decision prop in his UFC career.
It’s incredibly tough to pick a winner in this fight, with both fighters having more than one realistic path to victory over one another. When a fight of this level is too close to call, you’re always better off going with the plus-money side, and that’s exactly what should be done in this instance with the Korean Zombie at +118 (via CoolBet).
This one initially screams ‘Fight to go the Distance’. However, Dan Ige has never been stopped in his UFC career or MMA career period. Meanwhile, Chan Sung Jung has shown that he can eat massive shots on numerous occasions and continues to walk forward, hence the nickname.
Usually, this would be a home run spot for the ‘Over,’ which currently sits at ‘4.5 Rounds’ -105 (via Pinnacle). The only issue is that in Dan Ige’s last outing, he managed to finish the fight in a matter of seconds, with a 1st round KO over Gavin Tucker at UFC Vegas 21. It was a fight that was circled as being tailor-made to go the distance, but ‘Dynamite’ Dan Ige stopped that notion in a heartbeat. Based on all of this volatility and uncertainty, the best bet for this fight is just a straight-up one unit play on the Zombie ‘to Win Outright.’
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Sergey Spivak Pick
This fight is pretty cut and dry from a value-betting perspective. The 43-year-old Alexsey Oleynik comes in as a heavy 2-1 underdog against the ‘Polar Bear’ Sergey Spivak. The current betting odds see plus-money on the side over the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop, sitting at +134 (via Pinnacle), as well as the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop sitting at a ridiculous price of +425 (via 5Dimes).
The last time we saw Oleynik pick up a victory in the UFC was via decision, back at UFC 249. Sergey Spivak has gone the distance in 2 of his 5 UFC appearances, so it is by no way out of the realm of possibilities for this one to go the full 15 minutes. If you’re getting these humungous prices on this fight being dull and uneventful, you should probably take it.
Marlon Vera vs. Davey Grant Pick
Marlon ‘Cheto’ Vera comes in as the sizable -215 favorite at UFC Vegas 29 in a rematch against Davey Grant, who’s lined at +172 on the comeback. These two fighters met back in 2016, with Vera picking up the unanimous decision as the betting underdog. Now, five years later, these two meet again, this time with Vera as an ever-stronger betting favorite than Grant was in their first meeting.
Marlon Vera has won 6 of his last 9 UFC appearances, with all of his previous six wins coming by way of stoppage. A $100 bettor who has backed Marlon Vera on the Inside the Distance prop since 2018 has gone 6-3 for +$729 profit. An ROI of +$81 per fight, win or lose.
Davey Grant is just 4-3 in the UFC and is making good on a late run that has seen him pick up a victory in three straight fights, with his last two coming by way of stoppage. Grant has cashed as an underdog in his last three Octagon appearances and is lined at almost 2-1 odds once again on Saturday.
While it’s hard to get against the very underrated Marlon Vera, it’s even harder to pass up yet another plus-money opportunity on ‘Dangerous’ Davey. Grant has cashed on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop in each of his last two fights at prices of +650 and +545. If you’ve backed Grant in any of his previous three wins, you’re playing with house money on a fighter that has proven he can pull off shocking upsets. Take Davey Grant at +186 (via Pinnacle).
As for the betting total, Grant has only gone the distance twice in his UFC career. Meanwhile, ‘Cheto’ Vera has reached the judge’s decision in just three of his last nine fights, losing all three by decision. At the current price of -118 (via CoolBet), you’re getting a decent amount of value on a fight between two known finishers.
Kanako Murata vs. Virna Jandiroba Pick
It’s a meeting between two former Invicta FC champions as Virna Jandiroba comes in as a -130 betting favorite against the 27-year-old, Japanese Kanako Murata. Murata is a +120 underdog and is riding an eight-fight win streak, with four of her last six wins coming by way of submission. She faces a jiujitsu legend in Jandiroba who is 5-2 since making her Invicta debut back in 2017 and has gone 2-2 since making her way to the UFC. It’s an extremely close match-up between two high-level grapplers, making one automatically assume this fight might play out more on the feet than on the mat. Murata gives up a 2-inch reach and height advantage, and overall, she is the smaller framed woman compared to Jandiroba. It’s a razor-thin margin between these two fighters, but the smarter play here should probably be to side with the plus-money on Murata at +120 (via 5Dimes).
As for the betting total, Jandiroba has won 2 of her 4 UFC appearances by way of stoppage, and at the current price of +187 (via Pinnacle) on the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop, you’re getting a good chunk of value in a fight between two submission specialists. So take the plus-money on the side and total.
Casey O’Neill vs. Lara Procópio Pick
It’s a match-up between two up-and-coming young prospects in the UFC women’s flyweight division to kick off UFC Vegas 29 on Saturday. The 7-1 Lara Procopio takes on the 6-0 ‘King’ Casey O’Neil. Both of these women could very well be the future of the women’s 125lbs division and have built quite a path to the UFC with little to no ‘big stage’ experience. Procopio lost her UFC debut to Karol Rosa back in 2019. However, she managed to bounce back in a big way at UFC Vegas 18, cashing as a +105 underdog in a decision victory over Molly McCann.
As for ‘King’ Casey, O’Neil made her UFC debut back in February of this year, cashing as a -150 favorite over Shana Dobson, defeating her by 2nd round T/KO via ground and pound. In the victory, Casey cashed at +350 to win ‘Inside the Distance,’ her third stoppage in her professional fighting career.
Casey O’Neil comes in as the slightly larger fighter, with a 2-inch height and an inch and a half reach advantage. When we saw Lara Procopio, she put her judo skills on full display, throwing McCann to the matt, or reversing position into a takedown on numerous occasions. As for O’Neil, the Tiger Muay-Thai prodigy tends to stay on the outside of her opponent’s range and doesn’t commit to the clinch unless she’s landed a few shots on the way in. If Procopio can get her hands on ‘King’ Casey in open space without taking any damage, the 23-year-old Scot/Aussie might be in for some trouble.
However, apart from her UFC debut, the tape is out there on Casey O’Neil and what she’s already shown in her very short MMA career. This is a woman who has the perfect mix of precision striking, durability, and confidence. While Lara Procopio has shown that she can be very dangerous, she’s also demonstrated weaknesses that a game fighter like Casey O’Neil can exploit.
At the end of the day, this is a very close fight between two women that could very well find themselves at the top of the division in just a short matter of time. It is yet another case where you’re better off taking the plus-money in a razor-thin match-up between two highly skilled fighters. At the current price of +150 (via 5Dimes) on Casey O’Neil, you’re getting a ton of value on a line that should be closer to +125 at most.
As for the betting total, it’s never a bad idea to take a shot on the ‘Under’ in the women’s flyweight division, especially considering that the ‘Under’ has cashed at a 39% rate over the last year and a half, turning a profit of +5.59 units along the way. You’re getting a hefty line of +200 (via Pinnacle) on the ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop in a fight between two women that are both due for a breakout performance.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Chan Sung Jung (to Win Fight)||+118||CoolBet|
|1% (0.4u)||Aleksei Oleinik (to Win Fight)||+200||CoolBet|
|1% (0.4u)||Oleinik/Spivak (Over 1.5 Rounds)||+134||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Oleinik/Spivak (Fight Goes Distance)||+425||5Dimes|
|2.1% (0.84u)||Vera/Grant (Fight Goes Distance: No)||-118||CoolBet|
|2.1% (0.84u)||Davey Grant (to Win Fight)||+186||Pinnacle|
|1.6% (0.64u)||Erosa/Choi (Over 2.5 Rounds)||-115||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Julian Erosa (to Win Fight)||+130||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Silva/Turman (Fight Goes Distance)||+135||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Wellington Turman (to Win Fight)||+117||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Brown/Lima (Over 2.5 Rounds)||-126||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Nic Negumereanu (to Win Fight)||+210||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Kanako Murata (to Win Fight)||+120||5Dimes|
|1.8% (0.72u)||Jandiroba/Murata (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+187||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Semelsberger/Williams (Over 1.5 Rounds)||-142||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Semelsberger/Williams (Fight Goes Distance)||+155||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Silva/Glenn (Fight Goes Distance: No)||+158||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Rick Glenn (to Win Fight)||+114||Pinnacle|
|1.4% (0.56u)||Roque Martinez (to Win Fight)||+131||CoolBet|
|1% (0.4u)||Parisian/Martinez (Fight Goes Distance)||+130||Betway|
|1.4% (0.56u)||Procopio/O’Neil (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+200||Pinnacle|
|1.2% (0.48u)||Casey O’Neil (to Win Fight)||+150||5Dimes|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 244-262, +23.75u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 728-642, +38.53u
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