Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade Prediction – UFC 261 Odds: Valentina Shevchenko has won 5 of her 11 UFC bouts by way of the judge’s scorecards, going 5-6 on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, for +6.71 units profit, dating back to her 2015 UFC debut. Meanwhile, Jessica Andrade has won by stoppage in 6 of her 18 bouts since her 2013 UFC debut, going 6-12 on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, for +7.88 units profit. The two women square off for the UFC Women’s Flyweight gold on Saturday, April 24th at UFC 261.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade Odds
| UFC 261 | Valentina Shevchenko | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| to Win Outright | -556 | +374 |
| Inside the Distance | +140 | +400 |
| to Win by Decision | +135 | +1000 |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (+105) | No (-149) |
| Where/When | VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena | Sat April 24th | 10:00 PM ET |
Valentina Shevchenko is the -400 favorite, which is the shortest moneyline favorite she has been since winning the title over Joanna Jędrzejczyk as a -320 favorite back UFC 231 in 2018. In her four fights since then, Shevchenko has come in as an average betting favorite of -1000. This bout against the former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion, Jessica Andrade, could be one of her toughest tests to date in the 125lbs division. As for Andrade, this is just her second fight in the past three years, coming in as the betting underdog. Andrade made her return to Flyweight in her last bout at UFC Fight Island 6 against Katlyn Chookagian, winning the bout in the first round with a TKO body shot. The former 115lbs champ will look to pull off the unthinkable and get the win over the ‘Bullet,’ Shevchenko.
Tale of the Tape: Shevchenko vs Andrade
| UFC Women’s Flyweight | Valentina Shevhcenko | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-3 | 21-8 |
| Finish Rate | 65% (7 Wins by Submission) | 71% (8 Wins by T/KO) |
| Age | 33 | 29 |
| Height | 5’5 | 5’1 |
| Reach | 65.5′ | 62′ |
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy/Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 16-25-1 | 39% | +9.1u | +156 |
| Under | 16-26 | 38.1% | +3.02u | +162 |
Since the start of 2020 the underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has turned massive profits, going 16-25-1 for +9.1 units. Based on the betting trend, any underdog in this division at the price of +156 or better has been a +EV to make long term. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has also been a profitable prop to back in this division, with 16 of the last 42 bouts at women’s 125lbs having gone ‘Under’ the betting total, turning a profit of +3.02 units in that stretch.
Andrade comes into UFC 261 with a 12-6 record in the UFC, dating back to her debut in 2013. Andrade has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 10 of her 18 octagon appearances. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Under’ in every bout in Jessica Andrade’s UFC career has gone 10-8 for +$788 profit. Andrade has 6 of her 12 wins by way of stoppage, going 6-12 for +6.97 units profit on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop going 10-8, for +4.87 units profit in her 18 UFC appearances.
Jessica Andrade: Betting Trends
| Since 2013 UFC Debut | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 10-8 | +7.88u |
| Inside the Distance | 6-12 | +6.97u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 10-8 | +4.87u |
| to Win Fight | 12-6 | +3.24u |
| to Win by Decision | 6-12 | +2.31u |
| Opponent to Win Inside the Distance | 4-14 | +0.73u |
Valentina Shevchenko is 9-2 in the UFC, profiting for +3.01 units on the moneyline in her 11 octagon appearances; she has won 5 of her 11 UFC bouts by way of the judge’s scorecards, going 5-6 on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop for +6.71 units profit. The ‘Over’ and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ props have both gone 7-4 in her UFC career, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ turning a +4.31 unit profit since her 2015 UFC debut. Shevchenko has never been stopped in the UFC, with her only two losses in the octagon coming to Amanda Nunes, at Bantamweight, both by way of decision.
Valentina Shevchenko: Betting Trends
| Since 2015 UFC Debut | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| to Win by Decision | 5-6 | +6.71u |
| Fight Goes the Distance | 7-4 | +4.31u |
| to Win Outright | 9-2 | +3.01u |
| Over | 7-4 | +1.15u |
| Opponent to Win by Decision | 2-9 | +0.92u |
Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade Predictions
As tough as this fight is to break down from a technical perspective, based on the betting odds, there is a pretty simple handicap for the way this one should play out. It is the classic story of the longer the fight goes, the more it favors the champion; and if Andrade has a chance to win this fight, her most probable path to victory to get on the inside and either drop Shevchenko cold or drop her and follow it up with some ground and pound or a choke. Beyond that, if Shevchenko can keep her distance and stay outside of the much shorter Andrade’s range, she should be able to cruise to a five-round decision.
Jessica Andrade is a tough woman, and she may be Valentina’s toughest test to date at 125lbs pounds. However, considering Shevchenko was coming off an MCL surgery in her last appearance against Jennifer Maia, there may still be some betting value on the board on Shevchenko winning this fight on the judge’s scorecards.
If you are backing Shevchenko in this fight, the most likely way she wins this fight is by decision, which still seems to have some value at the current price of +135 (via 1XBet). However, on the flip side, if you are backing Jessica Andrade to win this fight, while you are better off not being greedy and just taking the hefty plus money on her to win outright, there is no question that her most probable path to victory is to pick up a stoppage win. With that being said, Andrade may also be able to get Shevchenko down, gain top control, and stay on top of Shevchenko long enough to bank enough rounds to win the fight.
Apart from picking a winner, the prop with the most betting value on the board in this fight at the current price is the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ at +105. Between these two women, 15 of their combined 29 UFC bouts have gone the distance. Based on implied probably, the +105 prop has a 48.8% chance of cashing, which is a mispricing of a line that has seen the fight goes the distance in more than half of these two women’s career octagonal appearances.
By betting the fight to go the distance, you are, in a sense, backing both fighters by hoping Andrade can hold her own against the seemingly untouchable Shevchenko while also hoping that Valentina can live up to the expectations and handle the challenge that is Andrade. Out of all the bets on the board, this one seems to have the best market value.
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